Milestones :: Perspectives :: Research
Ending the Covid-19 pandemic: The need for a global approach
Report – Eurasia Group COMMISSIONED BY THE BILL & MELINDA GATES FOUNDATION
25 NOVEMBER 2020 Publication date: 3 December 2020 :: 3 pages
:: Eurasia Group’s analysis suggests that leaving low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs) to fend for themselves amid the Covid-19 pandemic will cause significant economic damage that puts decades of economic progress at risk.
:: The Access to Covid-19 Tools Accelerator (Act-A) program is the only “end-to-end,” complete global solution – across tests, treatments, and vaccines – for tackling the pandemic. The world needs strong leadership and international cooperation to make this program a success. The Act-A program needs $38 billion in funding, of which $28.2 billion is still currently outstanding. Without contributions from advanced economies to fill that gap, Act-A will not be able to provide LLMICs with the life-saving tests, treatments, and vaccines they need.
:: Rapid, widespread, and equitable vaccination, tests, and treatments will save countless lives in LLMICs, allowing policymakers’ focus to return to the core development goals of raising living standards, empowering women, and marginalized communities, and strengthening institutions.
:: There is also a clear self-interested case for advanced economies to contribute to Act-A, and in particular, to the Gavi Covax-Advance Market Commitment (AMC), which aims to secure doses of Covid-19 vaccines for 92 LLMICs through the Covax Facility.
:: On the basis of the IMF’s October 2020 World Economic Outlook forecasts, Eurasia Group has estimated selected industry-level impacts for ten donor economies to quantify the economic impact of equitable vaccine distribution to Covax-AMC-eligible LLMICs. The US, the UK, Germany, Japan, and France were chosen based on their track record as the five largest donors in the world; Canada, Qatar, South Korea, Sweden, and the UAE were chosen to provide broader coverage across geographies and donor profiles.
:: This analysis suggests that the economic benefits of an equitable vaccine solution accrued by these ten donor countries alone would be at least $153 billion in 2020-21 (at constant exchange rates). Over the next five years, this sum rises to a cumulative $466 billion, more than 12 times the $38 billion total estimated cost of the Act-A program.
:: Apart from the clear economic benefits, each country involved stands to gain geopolitically—not only by taking a leading role in a coordinated multilateral response to Covid-19, but also by promoting prosperity and stability in the potential growth economies of the future.
3 December 2020 Joint News Release
Global equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines estimated to generate economic benefits of at least US$ 153 billion in 2020–21, and US$ 466 billion by 2025, in 10 major economies, according to new report by the Eurasia Group