Two decades of Human Development already lost says UNDP-commissioned study on impact of war in Yemen
Amman, 23 April 2019 – Ongoing conflict in Yemen has already reversed human development by 21 years, according to a UNDP-commissioned study released today. The study warns of exponentially growing impacts of conflict on human development. It projects that if the war ends in 2022, development gains will have been set back by 26 years — almost a generation. If it continues through 2030, that setback will increase to four decades.
Commissioned by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Yemen and conducted by researchers from the Frederick S. Pardee Centre for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, the study entitled Assessing the Impact of War on Development in Yemen considers the impact of conflict on the priorities articulated in the globally agreed Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development and its Sustainable Development Goals.
The study compares three potential quantitative modelling scenarios for the conflict ending in 2019, 2022 and 2030 against a hypothetical scenario where the conflict did not escalate after 2014. Based on the scenarios, the study attempts to quantify the impact of conflict on multiple dimensions of development, including demographic outlook, economic conditions, infrastructures, health and education.
“Human development has not just been interrupted. It has been reversed,” asserted UNDP Yemen Resident Representative, Auke Lootsma. “Even if there were to be peace tomorrow, it could take decades for Yemen to return to pre-conflict levels of development. This is a big loss for the people of Yemen.”…
…“The long-term impacts of conflict are vast and place it among the most destructive conflicts since the end of the Cold War,” states the report; and further deterioration of the situation “will add significantly to prolonged human suffering, retard human development in Yemen, and could further deteriorate regional stability.”
Assessing the Impact of War on Development in Yemen
UNDP 2019 :: 68 pages
Jonathan D. Moyer | David Bohl | Taylor Hanna | Brendan R. Mapes | Mickey Rafa
Prior to the escalation of conflict in 2015, development in Yemen was strained. A country of 30 million people, Yemen ranked: (a) 153rd on the Human Development Index (HDI); (b) 138th in extreme poverty; (c) 147th in life expectancy; (d) 172nd in educational attainment; and, (e) was in the World Bank low-middle income category. Projections suggest that Yemen would not have achieved any of
the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 even in the absence of conflict.
This study on the “Impact of War on Development in Yemen”, was commissioned end of 2018 in collaboration with Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. The researchers undertook the analytical work with a desire to understand the impact of war in Yemen across human, social and economic dimensions of development. The analysis was undertaken by calibrating a quantitative modeling system called International Futures (IFs) to fit the available information on the impact of war in Yemen to date, and then create four hypothetical analytical scenarios to be explored. One where the conflict ends in 2019, 2022 and finally one where conflict extents all the way to 2030. To assess the impacts from the conflict across the three conflict scenarios the fourth scenario represents a counter-factual world in which conflict did not escalate beyond 2014. The result is an impact study that quantifies the damages of the war in Yemen across multiple dimension of development such as loss of lives, health, demographics, education, infrastructure and the economy, etc.
The study is intended to advocate to the parties to the conflict on the consequences of the conflict on medium- and long-term development, as recovery to the pre-conflict levels would require two to three generations. At the same time the study intends to inform the general public, including the international community, about the level of devastation caused by the conflict in Yemen, and ask those who have influence over either party to the conflict to urgently push towards a sustainable peace deal and a stop to further escalation. The situation is already extremely severe. If it deteriorates further it will add significantly to prolonged human suffering, retard human development in Yemen, and could further deteriorate regional stability.