Infectious Diseases of Poverty
http://www.idpjournal.com/content
[Accessed 12 December 2015]

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Research Article
Assessing Ebola-related web search behaviour: insights and implications from an analytical study of Google Trends-based query volumes
Cristiano Alicino, Nicola Bragazzi, Valeria Faccio, Daniela Amicizia, Donatella Panatto, Roberto Gasparini, Giancarlo Icardi, Andrea Orsi Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2015, 4:54 (10 December 2015)
Abstract
Background
The 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa has attracted public interest worldwide, leading to millions of Ebola-related Internet searches being performed during the period of the epidemic. This study aimed to evaluate and interpret Google search queries for terms related to the Ebola outbreak both at the global level and in all countries where primary cases of Ebola occurred. The study also endeavoured to look at the correlation between the number of overall and weekly web searches and the number of overall and weekly new cases of Ebola.
Methods
Google Trends (GT) was used to explore Internet activity related to Ebola. The study period was from 29 December 2013 to 14 June 2015. Pearson’s correlation was performed to correlate Ebola-related relative search volumes (RSVs) with the number of weekly and overall Ebola cases. Multivariate regression was performed using Ebola-related RSV as a dependent variable, and the overall number of Ebola cases and the Human Development Index were used as predictor variables.
Results
The greatest RSV was registered in the three West African countries mainly affected by the Ebola epidemic. The queries varied in the different countries. Both quantitative and qualitative differences between the affected African countries and other Western countries with primary cases were noted, in relation to the different flux volumes and different time courses. In the affected African countries, web query search volumes were mostly concentrated in the capital areas. However, in Western countries, web queries were uniformly distributed over the national territory. In terms of the three countries mainly affected by the Ebola epidemic, the correlation between the number of new weekly cases of Ebola and the weekly GT index varied from weak to moderate. The correlation between the number of Ebola cases registered in all countries during the study period and the GT index was very high.
Conclusion
Google Trends showed a coarse-grained nature, strongly correlating with global epidemiological data, but was weaker at country level, as it was prone to distortions induced by unbalanced media coverage and the digital divide. Global and local health agencies could usefully exploit GT data to identify disease-related information needs and plan proper communication strategies, particularly in the case of health-threatening events.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Volume 14, Part 4, Pages 323-564 (December 2015)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/22124209/14/part/P4

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Fragmentation in disaster risk management systems: A barrier for integrated planning
Original Research Article
Pages 445-456
Claudia Rivera, Henrik Tehler, Christine Wamsler]
Abstract
The need to integrate climate change adaptation (CCA) considerations into disaster risk management (DRM) systems is widely recognised. However, successful integration, and thus the implementation of integrated planning measures, is difficult in practice. To understand and reduce the problems encountered, it is important to investigate systemic challenges. These challenges are rooted in the interaction between various stakeholders that affect DRM and the integration of CCA, directly or indirectly. This study explores the degree of integration in on-the-ground measures by studying systemic challenges, using the Nicaraguan DRM system as a case study. A theoretical framework for investigating systemic challenges in DRM systems was developed. It was then used in a retrospective analysis of the different functions of the systems in order to identify fragmentation in knowledge, information and coordination flows at local and national levels of governance. The results revealed several fragmented processes and functions in the Nicaraguan DRM system. These lead to difficulties in consolidating relevant information produced by multiple governmental authorities at different levels, and transferring this information to the local level. Fragmentation also leads, in turn, to little integration of CCA aspects into DRM in both local planning and practice.

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Analysis of key factors for waste management in humanitarian response: An interpretive structural modelling approach
Original Research Article
Pages 527-535
Ashish Trivedi, Amol Singh, Ankur Chauhan
Abstract
Recent few years have witnessed a substantial growth in the frequency and magnitude of disasters. Natural disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes hit a community without any prior signals or warning, resulting in high levels of devastation. This further leads to generation of waste and debris that pose threats to health and safety of associated population as well as hinder the recovery process. Hence, there is a necessity of an effective and efficient management of disaster waste. The present research analyses the factors that affect the successful implementation of disaster waste management. Initially the study aims to identify certain key factors from the literature as well as through consultation from domain experts. Next, the contextual relationship between the factors is studied by using Interpretive Structural Modelling approach. The analysis helps in determining factors that play influential role in disaster waste management. It is revealed that geography & terrain and type of disaster have a direct impact on speed of debris management. Although these factors cannot be controlled, but they must be kept in mind while devising waste management plans in vulnerable areas. The analysis further reveals that donors, disaster affected population and local & regional administration can contribute significantly in successful implementation of a disaster waste management plan. The study highlights how these factors influence other elements in waste management process during humanitarian response. Understanding the significance of these factors and giving them priority while planning and implementing disaster waste management can lead to an efficient relief delivery.

International Journal of Infectious Diseases
December 2015 Volume 41, In Progress
http://www.ijidonline.com/issue/S1201-9712%2815%29X0012-9

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Addressing contact tracing challenges—critical to halting Ebola virus disease transmission
Ashley L. Greiner, Kristina M. Angelo, Andrea M. McCollum, Kelsey Mirkovic, Ray Arthur, Frederick J. Angulo
p53–55
Published online: November 4 2015
Open Access
Abstract
The 2014–2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak is the largest in history and the first in West Africa. Many factors underlie the extensive transmission of EVD, particularly delayed and ineffective contact tracing. Contact tracing is a key component to halting the epidemic and getting to zero cases; it includes identifying, locating, and assessing people (known as contact-persons) who have been exposed to a symptomatic EVD case patient.1 Contact-persons are then systematically followed during the maximum Ebola virus incubation period of 21 days, to allow for immediate identification and prompt isolation if they become symptomatic, preventing onward transmission.

Journal of Development Economics
Volume 118, Pages 1-298 (January 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03043878/118

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Conditional cash transfers, civil conflict and insurgent influence: Experimental evidence from the Philippines
Original Research Article
Pages 171-182
Benjamin Crost, Joseph H. Felter, Patrick B. Johnston
Abstract
Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are an increasingly popular tool for reducing poverty in conflict-affected areas. Despite their growing popularity, there is limited evidence on how CCT programs affect conflict and theoretical predictions are ambiguous. We estimate the effect of conditional cash transfers on civil conflict in the Philippines by exploiting an experiment that randomly assigned eligibility for a CCT program at the village level. We find that cash transfers caused a substantial decrease in conflict-related incidents in treatment villages relative to control villages in the first 9 months of the program. Using unique data on local insurgent influence, we also find that the program reduced insurgent influence in treated villages. An analysis of possible spillovers yields inconclusive results. While we find no statistical evidence of spillovers, we also cannot rule out that the village-level effect was due to displacement of insurgent activity from treatment to control villages.

Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health
January 2016, Volume 70, Issue 1
http://jech.bmj.com/content/current

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Editorial
The 2014–2015 Ebola saga: lessons for the future
James A Ayukekbong
Author Affiliations
Section of Clinical Virology, Redeem Biomedical System, Buea, Cameroon
Extract
The duration and characteristics of the current devastating and unprecedented Ebola epidemic highlight the need for global public health surveillance to establish preparedness mechanisms for future outbreaks. Since the discovery of the virus in 1976, at least 25 Ebola outbreaks have been recorded, on average occurring every 1.5 years with case fatality rate (CFR) between 30% and 90%.1 ,2 The largest interval between two outbreaks is 15 years, that is, from the 1979 outbreak in Sudan due to the Sudan Ebola virus and the subsequent 1994 outbreak in Gabon caused by the Zaire Ebola virus.
Remarkably, only six previous outbreaks generated >100 deaths but the approximately 11 222 deaths (as of 30 June 2015) in the ongoing epidemic is already more than seven times the number of deaths reported for all previous outbreaks combined, which is estimated to be about 1580 deaths.3 ,4 Obviously, the present epidemic is the longest, largest and most complex Ebola outbreak since the virus was first discovered about 40 years ago. The outbreak started in December 2013 in Guinea,2 spread across land borders to Sierra Leone and Liberia, and then subsequently, by some infected persons, to seven other countries (Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain, the UK, Germany and the USA). In some of these countries, individuals were only diagnosed as Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases after their arrival (eg, the USA), while other countries received known patients for treatment (eg, Spain). However, in these countries, the disease was rapidly contained, thanks to improved healthcare facilities, timely patient isolation and treatment. Meanwhile, the outbreak in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone continued on …

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Ebola, viewed through a lens of African epidemiology
Musa Abubakar Kana, Olufunmilayo Y Elegba, Jackie Obey, Faina Linkov, Eugene Shubnikov
J Epidemiol Community Health 2016;70:6-8 Published Online First: 5 August 2015 doi:10.1136/jech-2015-205874

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Commentary
The impact of pornography on gender-based violence, sexual health and well-being: what do we know?
Megan S C Lim1,2, Elise R Carrotte1, Margaret E Hellard1,2
Author Affiliations
1Centre for Population Health, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
2School of Population Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Introduction
As Internet access and literacy increases, pornography has become highly accessible, cheap and diverse. Online pornography use is common in the USA, with nearly 9 out of 10 men and 1 out of 3 women aged 18–26 reporting accessing pornography online.1 In June 2013, legal pornographic websites received more UK-based traffic than social networks, shopping, news and media, email, finance, gaming and travel websites.2 For example, popular pornography website ‘pornhub’ received 79 billion video views in 2014.3

Increased access to pornography online has been accompanied by rising concerns that it negatively impacts health and well-being, particularly with regard to young people. These concerns include that viewing any sexually explicit material erodes morals and that specific types of pornography, such as that depicting violence against women, leads to increased violence against women in real life. Even in the case of non-violent pornography, there is anxiety that people view pornography as ‘real’ rather than fantasy and that this negatively influences attitudes and real-life sexual behaviour, particularly when people’s sexual experience is limited such as in adolescence.4 Other concerns include the scarcity of condom use in pornography (both for diminishing condom use as a social norm and for the risks to the health of performers), impacts on body image (including trends in pubic hair removal and labiaplasty), and the harms of pornography addiction.

Despite the myriad of fears about online pornography, questions remain over its actual harm. Do viewers really imitate pornography in their own lives and does this negatively influence their health and well-being? Does watching violence in pornography lead to misogyny and gender-based violence? Are young people at greater risk of the negative effects of viewing pornography (if they exist) than older adults? In this paper, we explore the most commonly cited concerns over online pornography by …

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Reaching the poor with health interventions: programme-incidence analysis of seven randomised trials of women’s groups to reduce newborn mortality in Asia and Africa
Tanja A J Houweling, Joanna Morrison, Glyn Alcock, Kishwar Azad, Sushmita Das, Munir Hossen, Abdul Kuddus, Sonia Lewycka, Caspar W Looman, Bharat Budhathoki Magar, Dharma S Manandhar, Mahfuza Akter, Albert Lazarous Nkhata Dube, Shibanand Rath, Naomi Saville, Aman Sen, Prasanta Tripathy, Anthony Costello, for the EquiNaM group
J Epidemiol Community Health 2016;70:31-41 Published Online First: 5 August 2015 doi:10.1136/jech-2014-204685
Abstract
Background
Efforts to end preventable newborn deaths will fail if the poor are not reached with effective interventions. To understand what works to reach vulnerable groups, we describe and explain the uptake of a highly effective community-based newborn health intervention across social strata in Asia and Africa.
Methods
We conducted a secondary analysis of seven randomised trials of participatory women’s groups to reduce newborn mortality in India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Malawi. We analysed data on 70 574 pregnancies. Socioeconomic and sociodemographic differences in group attendance were tested using logistic regression. Qualitative data were collected at each trial site (225 focus groups, 20 interviews) to understand our results.
Results
Socioeconomic differences in women’s group attendance were small, except for occasional lower attendance by elites. Sociodemographic differences were large, with lower attendance by young primigravid women in African as well as in South Asian sites. The intervention was considered relevant and interesting to all socioeconomic groups. Local facilitators ensured inclusion of poorer women. Embarrassment and family constraints on movement outside the home restricted attendance among primigravid women. Reproductive health discussions were perceived as inappropriate for them.
Conclusions
Community-based women’s groups can help to reach every newborn with effective interventions. Equitable intervention uptake is enhanced when facilitators actively encourage all women to attend, organise meetings at the participants’ convenience and use approaches that are easily understandable for the less educated. Focused efforts to include primigravid women are necessary, working with families and communities to decrease social taboos.

Journal of Global Ethics
Volume 11, Issue 3, 2015
http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rjge20/.U2V-Elf4L0l#.VAJEj2N4WF8

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Forum: The Sustainable Development Goals
Introduction: The 2030 Agenda
Eric Palmer*
DOI: 10.1080/17449626.2015.1119928
pages 262-269
Abstract
This introduction notes the contributions of authors to the second (final) issue of the Journal of Global Ethics 2015 Sustainable Development Goals Forum. It briefly explains the process through which the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have developed from their receipt in 2014 to their passage in September 2015 by the UN General Assembly, and it considers their development in prospect. The Millennium Development Goals, which spanned 1990–2015, present a case study that reveals the changeability of such long-term multilateral commitments. They were enmeshed in overlapping and inconsistent national and intergovernmental commitments reaching from 1995 to 2005, and the text of those goals also evolved, stabilizing for the last time in 2007. The SDGs and attendant commitments should be expected to evolve similarly over their 15-year run. This presents a concern, for among the three committees established by the UN to create the goals, the two committees charged with public consultation were retired as planned in 2014. The process evident thereafter has displayed a shift towards a strategy of enrolling broad public endorsement that leaves such consultation and specific responsibility to those consulted in doubt. This bodes ill for public deliberation on the goals and for public accountability as the agenda proceeds towards 2030.

Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies
Volume 13, Issue 4, 2015
http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/wimm20/current

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The Refugee Experience of Social Cohesion in Australia: Exploring the Roles of Racism, Intercultural Contact, and the Media
Justine Dandy & Rogelia Pe-Pua
pages 339-357
Abstract
In this article we examine factors that enhance or disrupt social cohesion for refugees in communities in Perth, Sydney, and Murray Bridge. The data, from 54 interviews and focus groups with 138 people, are drawn from a larger study using Jenson’s multidimensional framework of social cohesion. We found that racism, intercultural contact, and the media had multiple and interrelated effects on aspects of social cohesion such as belonging, participation, and inclusion. The findings demonstrate the utility of the multidimensional framework for understanding refugees’ settlement experiences and outcomes and highlight key areas for policy and practice in refugee resettlement in Australia.

The Lancet
Dec 12, 2015 Volume 386 Number 10011 p2365-2444 e56-e60
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/current

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Editorial
Remembering the right to health
The Lancet
Summary
Dec 10 marks Human Rights Day. This year, the day is devoted to the launch of a year-long UN campaign to celebrate the 50th anniversary of two landmark international covenants on human rights: the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which were adopted by the UN General Assembly on Dec 16, 1966.

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Comment
Women’s, children’s, and adolescents’ health needs universal health coverage
Robin Gorna, Nicole Klingen, Kunio Senga, Agnes Soucat, Keizo Takemi
2371

A worldwide shift in polio vaccines for routine immunisation
Julie R Garon, Walter A Orenstein
2375

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Articles
Immunogenicity of a new routine vaccination schedule for global poliomyelitis prevention: an open-label, randomised controlled trial
Roland W Sutter, Sunil Bahl, Jagadish M Deshpande, Harish Verma, Mohammad Ahmad, P Venugopal, J Venkateswara Rao, Sharad Agarkhedkar, Sanjay K Lalwani, Abhishek Kunwar, Raman Sethi, Marina Takane, Lalitendu Mohanty, Arani Chatterjee, T Jacob John, Hamid Jafari, R Bruce Aylward
Summary
Background
Polio eradication needs a new routine immunisation schedule—three or four doses of bivalent type 1 and type 3 oral poliovirus vaccine (bOPV) and one dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), but no immunogenicity data are available for this schedule. We aimed to assess immunogenicity of this vaccine schedule.
Methods
We did an open-label, randomised controlled trial in four centres in India. After informed consent was obtained from a parent or legally acceptable representative, healthy newborn babies were randomly allocated to one of five groups: trivalent OPV (tOPV); tOPV plus IPV; bOPV; bOPV plus IPV; or bOPV plus two doses of IPV (2IPV). The key eligibility criteria were: full-term birth (≥37 weeks of gestation); birthweight ≥2·5 kg; and Apgar score of 9 or more. OPV was administered at birth, 6 weeks, 10 weeks, and 14 weeks; IPV was administered intramuscularly at 14 weeks. The primary study objective was to investigate immunogenicity of the new vaccine schedule, assessed by seroconversion against poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 between birth and 18 weeks in the per-protocol population (all participants with valid serology results on cord blood and at 18 weeks). Neutralisation assays tested cord blood and sera collected at 14 weeks, 18 weeks, 19 weeks, and 22 weeks by investigators masked to group allocation. This trial was registered with the India Clinical Trials Registry, number CTRI/2013/06/003722.
Findings
Of 900 newborn babies enrolled between June 13 and Aug 29, 2013, 782 (87%) completed the per-protocol requirements. Between birth and age 18 weeks, seroconversion against poliovirus type 1 in the tOPV group occurred in 162 of 163 (99·4%, 95% CI 96·6–100), in 150 (98·0%, 94·4–99·6) of 153 in the tOPV plus IPV group, in 153 (98·7%, 95·4–99·8) of 155 in the bOPV group, in 155 (99·4%, 96·5–100) of 156 in the bOPV plus IPV group, and in 154 (99·4%, 96·5–100) of 155 in the bOPV plus 2IPV group. Seroconversion against poliovirus type 2 occurred in 157 (96·3%, 92·2–98·6) of 163 in the tOPV group, 153 (100%, 97·6–100·0) of 153 in the tOPV plus IPV group, 29 (18·7%, 12·9–25·7) of 155 in the bOPV group, 107 (68·6%, 60·7–75·8) of 156 in the bOPV plus IPV group, and in 121 (78·1%, 70·7–84·3) of 155 in the bOPV plus 2IPV group. Seroconversion against poliovirus type 3 was achieved in 147 (90·2%, 84·5–94·3) of 163 in the tOPV group, 152 (99·3%, 96·4–100) of 153 in the tOPV plus IPV group, 151 (97·4%, 93·5–99·3) of 155 in the bOPV group, 155 (99·4%, 96·5–100) of 156 in the bOPV plus IPV group, and 153 (98·7%, 95·4–99·8) of 155 in the bOPV plus 2IPV group. Superiority was achieved for vaccine regimens including IPV against poliovirus type 3 compared with those not including IPV (tOPV plus IPV vs tOPV alone, p=0·0008; and bOPV plus IPV vs bOPV alone, p=0·0153). 12 serious adverse events occurred (six in the tOPV group, one in the tOPV plus IPV group, three in the bOPV group, zero in the bOPV plus IPV group, and two in the bOPV plus 2IPV group), none of which was attributed to the trial intervention.
Interpretation
The new vaccination schedule improves immunogenicity against polioviruses, especially against poliovirus type 3.
Funding
WHO, through a grant from Rotary International ( grant number 59735 ).

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Review
Assuring health coverage for all in India
Vikram Patel, Rachana Parikh, Sunil Nandraj, Priya Balasubramaniam, Kavita Narayan, Vinod K Paul, A K Shiva Kumar, Mirai Chatterjee, K Srinath Reddy

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Health Policy
How much donor financing for health is channelled to global versus country-specific aid functions?
Marco Schäferhoff, Sara Fewer, Jessica Kraus, Emil Richter, Lawrence H Summers, Jesper Sundewall, Gavin Yamey, Dean T Jamison

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Viewpoint
The health gap: the challenge of an unequal world
Michael Marmot

PLOS Currents: Disasters
http://currents.plos.org/disasters/
[Accessed 12 December 2015]

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Demographic Determinants of Disaster Preparedness Behaviors Amongst Tehran Inhabitants, Iran
December 11, 2015 · Research Article
Background: Tehran is vulnerable to natural hazards, especially earthquakes. Disaster preparedness behaviors (DPB) are measures that can mitigate the adverse consequences of disasters. Demographic factors affect DPB, however, the role of some of these factors is not still clear. By understanding these effects, disaster specialists could design interventions toward specific demographics. In the present study, we aimed to investigate demographic determinants of DPB.
Methods: This cross-sectional survey was conducted in August 2014. The target population included inhabitants of Tehran who were 18 years or older. A total of 1250 participants were selected randomly and interviewed using a standardized questionnaire.
Results: Results of our study showed that monthly income level, previous disaster experience, residential district and occupation are demographic factors that influence DPB significantly. However, disaster preparedness was not affected by gender, educational level, number of household members, home type, home ownership and being the head of household.
Conclusion: To promote DPB in Tehran, disaster specialists should focus on improving DPB in low-income and unemployed people, and individuals who live in high risk districts, especially in those who have not experienced disasters.

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Teacher-Mediated Interventions to Support Child Mental Health Following a Disaster: A Systematic Review
December 8, 2015 · Disasters
Objectives: This review sought to identify, describe and assess the effectiveness of teacher-mediated interventions that aim to support child and adolescent recovery after a natural or man-made disaster. We also aimed to assess intervention applicability to rural and remote Australian school settings.
Method: A systematic search of the academic literature was undertaken utilising six electronic databases (EBSCO, Medline, PsycINFO, Embase, ERIC and CINAHL) using terms that relate to: teacher-mediated and school-based interventions; children and adolescents; mental health and wellbeing; natural disasters and man-made disasters. This was supplemented by a grey literature search.
Results: A total of 20 articles reporting on 18 separate interventions were identified. Nine separate interventions had been evaluated using methodologically adequate research designs, with findings suggesting at least short-term improvement in student wellbeing outcomes and academic performance.
Conclusions: Although none of the identified studies reported on Australian-based interventions, international interventions could be adapted to the Australian rural and remote context using existing psychosocial programs and resources available online to Australian schools. Future research should investigate the acceptability, feasibility and effectiveness of implementing interventions modelled on the identified studies in Australian schools settings.

PLoS One
http://www.plosone.org/
[Accessed 12 December 2015]

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The Global Health Impact Index: Promoting Global Health
Nicole Hassoun
Research Article | published 11 Dec 2015 | PLOS ONE
10.1371/journal.pone.0141374
Abstract
Millions of people cannot access essential medicines they need for deadly diseases like malaria, tuberculosis (TB) and HIV/AIDS. There is good information on the need for drugs for these diseases but until now, no global estimate of the impact drugs are having on this burden. This paper presents a model measuring companies’ key malaria, TB and HIV/AIDS drugs’ consequences for global health (global-health-impact.org). It aggregates drugs’ impacts in several ways–by disease, country and originator-company. The methodology can be extended across diseases as well as drugs to provide a more extensive picture of the impact companies’ drugs are having on the global burden of disease. The study suggests that key malaria, TB and HIV/AIDS drugs are, together, ameliorating about 37% of the global burden of these diseases and Sanofi, Novartis, and Pfizer’s drugs are having the largest effect on this burden. Moreover, drug impacts vary widely across countries. This index provides important information for policy makers, pharmaceutical companies, countries, and other stake-holders that can help increase access to essential medicines.

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Health Gains and Financial Protection from Pneumococcal Vaccination and Pneumonia Treatment in Ethiopia: Results from an Extended Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
Kjell Arne Johansson, Solomon Tessema Memirie, Clint Pecenka, Dean T. Jamison, Stéphane Verguet
Research Article | published 09 Dec 2015 | PLOS ONE
10.1371/journal.pone.0142691
Abstract
Background
Pneumonia and pneumococcal disease cause a large disease burden in resource-constrained settings. We pursue an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) of two fully publicly financed interventions in Ethiopia: pneumococcal vaccination for newborns and pneumonia treatment for under-five children in Ethiopia.
Methods
We apply ECEA methods and estimate the program impact on: (1) government program costs; (2) pneumonia and pneumococcal deaths averted; (3) household expenses related to pneumonia/pneumococcal disease treatment averted; (4) prevention of household medical impoverishment measured by an imputed money-metric value of financial risk protection; and (5) distributional consequences across the wealth strata of the country population. Available epidemiological and cost data from Ethiopia are applied and the two interventions are assessed separately at various incremental coverage levels.
Results
Scaling-up pneumococcal vaccines at around 40% coverage would cost about $11.5 million and avert about 2090 child deaths annually, while a 10% increase of pneumonia treatment to all children under 5 years of age would cost about $13.9 million and avert 2610 deaths annually. Health benefits of the two interventions publicly financed would be concentrated among the bottom income quintile, where 30–40% of all deaths averted would be expected to occur in the poorest quintile. In sum, the two interventions would eliminate a total of $2.4 million of private household expenditures annually, where the richest quintile benefits from around 30% of the total private expenditures averted. The financial risk protection benefits would be largely concentrated among the bottom income quintile. The results are most sensitive to variations in vaccine price, population size, number of deaths due to pneumonia, efficacy of interventions and out-of-pocket copayment share.
Conclusions
Vaccine and treatment interventions for children, as shown with the illustrative examples of pneumococcal vaccine and pneumonia treatment, can bring large health and financial benefits to households in Ethiopia, most particularly among the poorest socio-economic groups.

PNAS – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States  of America
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/
(Accessed 12 December 2015)

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Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices
Francis Dennig, Mark B. Budolfson, Marc Fleurbaey, Asher Siebert, and Robert H. Socolow
PNAS 2015 ; published ahead of print December 7, 2015, doi:10.1073/pnas.1513967112
Significance
Hundreds of published papers produce “optimal” trajectories of global emissions of carbon dioxide, and corresponding carbon prices, over this century, taking into account future damages inflicted by climate change. To our knowledge, in all instances the models ignore inequalities in economic variables beyond regional differences. Here, we introduce heterogeneous subregional populations (distributed by income) and explore how the optimal trajectories are affected by whether regional damage afflicts the poor predominantly. We find that when future damage falls especially hard on the poor, considerably greater global mitigation effort is optimal than when damage is proportional to income.
Abstract
Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)—a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)—in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model’s regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon—as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting.

Value in Health
December 2015 Volume 18, Issue 8, p941-1162
http://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/current

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Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Hypothetical Strategies to Enhance Retention in Care within HIV Treatment Programs in East Africa
Jason Kessler, Kimberly Nucifora, Lingfeng Li, Lauren Uhler, Scott Braithwaite
p946–955
Published online: November 16 2015
Preview
Attrition from care among HIV infected patients can lead to poor clinical outcomes. Our objective was to evaluate hypothetical interventions seeking to improve retention-in-care (RIC) for HIV-infected patients in East Africa, asking whether they could offer favorable value compared to earlier ART initiation.

The Sentinel

Human Rights Action :: Humanitarian Response :: Health ::
Holistic Development :: Sustainable Resilience
__________________________________________________
Week ending 5 December 2015

This weekly digest is intended to aggregate and distill key content from a broad spectrum of practice domains and organization types including key agencies/IGOs, NGOs, governments, academic and research institutions, consortia and collaborations, foundations, and commercial organizations. We also monitor a spectrum of peer-reviewed journals and general media channels. The Sentinel’s geographic scope is global/regional but selected country-level content is included. We recognize that this spectrum/scope yields an indicative and not an exhaustive product. Comments and suggestions should be directed to:

David R. Curry
Editor &
Founding Managing Director
GE2P2 – Center for Governance, Evidence, Ethics, Policy, Practice
david.r.curry@ge2p2center.net

pdf version: The Sentinel_ week ending 5 December 2015

blog edition: comprised of the 35+ entries  posted below on 6 December 2015

The Emissions Gap Report 2015
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
November 2015 :: 98 pages ISBN: 978-92-807-3491-1
Full Report pdf: http://uneplive.unep.org/media/docs/theme/13/EGR_2015_301115_lores.pdf

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Overview
The sixth UNEP Emissions Gap Report provides a scientific assessment of the impacts of the submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) on anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Like in the previous reports, this year’s report then compares the resulting emission level in 2030 with what science tells us is required to be on track towards the agreed political target of a temperature increase no more than 2°C by the end of the century. The report also provides data for the aspirational target of an increase below 1.5°C. In addition the report analyzes selected areas where enhanced action can be taken and how these actions can be accelerated and scaled up to close the ‘gap’.

The following key questions are addressed:
:: What are the latest estimates of long-term emissions consistent with the target of holding the global temperature rise within 2°C/1.5°C above pre-industrial levels?
:: What is the progress on implementation of the ‘Copenhagen Pledges’ and other national commitments
:: Will the combined INDCs for 2030 (if fully implemented) be enough to stay within the emission range required to be consistent with the temperature target?
:: What are possible contributions in some of the key areas where action can be accelerated to enhance the ambition of national pledges both in the period before 2020 and after 2020?

This year, International Cooperative Initiatives (ICIs) and reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) have been in the focus of the assessment. In addition an update is provided on the areas assessed in the earlier reports.

Executive Summary (English)

World Bank [to 5 December 2015]
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/all

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World Bank Group unveils $16 Billion Africa Climate Business Plan to Tackle Urgent Climate Challenges
One third of funds expected to come from Bank’s fund for the poorest countries
WASHINGTON, November 24, 2015—The World Bank Group today unveiled a new plan that calls for $16 billion in funding to help African people and countries adapt to climate change and build up the continent’s resilience to climate shocks.

Titled Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development, the Africa Climate Business Plan will be presented at COP21, the global climate talks in Paris, on November 30. It lays out measures to boost the resilience of the continent’s assets – its people, land, water, and cities – as well as other moves including boosting renewable energy and strengthening early warning systems.

“Sub-Saharan Africa is highly vulnerable to climate shocks, and our research shows that could have far-ranging impact — on everything from child stunting and malaria to food price increases and droughts,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. “This plan identifies concrete steps that African governments can take to ensure that their countries will not lose hard-won gains in economic growth and poverty reduction, and they can offer some protection from climate change.”

Per current estimates, the plan says that the region requires $5-10 billion per year to adapt to global warming of 2°C.

The World Bank and the United Nations Environment Programme estimate that the cost of managing climate resilience will continue to rise to $20-50 billion by mid-century, and closer to $100 billion in the event of a 4°C warming.

Of the $16.1 billion that the ambitious plan proposes for fast-tracking climate adaptation, some $5.7 billion is expected from the International Development Association (IDA), the arm of the World Bank Group that supports the poorest countries. About $2.2 billion is expected from various climate finance instruments, $2.0 billion from others in the development community, $3.5 billion from the private sector, and $0.7 billion from domestic sources, with an additional $2.0 billion needed to deliver on the plan.

“The Africa Climate Business Plan spells out a clear path to invest in the continent’s urgent climate needs and to fast-track the required climate finance to ensure millions of people are protected from sliding into extreme poverty,” explains Makhtar Diop, World Bank Group Vice President for Africa. “While adapting to climate change and mobilizing the necessary resources remain an enormous challenge, the plan represents a critical opportunity to support a priority set of climate-resilient initiatives in Africa.”

The plan will boost the region’s ability to adapt to a changing climate while reducing greenhouse emissions, focusing on a number of concrete actions. It identifies a dozen priority areas for action that will enhance Africa’s capacity to adapt to the adverse consequences of climate variation and change.

The first area for action aims to boost the resilience of the continent’s assets. These comprise natural capital (landscapes, forests, agricultural land, inland water bodies, oceans); physical capital (cities, transport infrastructure, physical assets in coastal areas); and human and social capital (where efforts should include improving social protection for the people most vulnerable to climate shocks, and addressing climate-related drivers of migration)…

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World Bank Statement of Support for ‘State of City Climate Finance’ report launched at COP21
PARIS, December 4, 2015 — The World Bank supports the ‘The State of City Climate Finance’ report launched today by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and international partners at the Climate Summit…
Date: December 4, 2015 Type: Press Release

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Joint Statement by the Multilateral Development Banks on Sustainable Transport and Climate Change
MDBs Join Forces to Ramp up Climate Action in Transport
…We recognize the importance of improving the climate resilience of transport systems. We commit to building awareness of the need to protect transport services so that they can continue to deliver social and economic benefits under current and future climate change scenarios. We will work towards building a more systematic approach to mainstreaming climate resilience in transport policies, plans and investments through developing improved tools and methodologies, capacity building and project financing. To this end, we have been working with other international financial institutions to screen potential climate risks in our project pipelines…
Date: December 2, 2015 Type: Press Release
[1] African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, CAF–Development Bank of Latin America, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, European Investment Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank, and the World Bank.

AfDB to support electricity access for all by 2030 with African Renewable Energy Initiative
02/12/2015 – African Development Bank Group
Africa has launched an ambitious African Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI) as the continent’s a major contribution to Conference of Parties (COP21) taking place in Paris, France.
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The launch of the initiative which aims to produce 300 gigawatts (GW) of electricity for the continent by 2030 is a demonstration of Africa’s leadership in the UN climate negotiations.

The initiative’s goals are to help achieve sustainable development, enhance well-being and sound economic development by ensuring universal access to sufficient amounts of clean, appropriate and affordable energy.

The project also aims to help African countries leapfrog towards renewable energy systems that support their low-carbon development strategies while enhancing economic and energy security.

The initiative is expected to deliver 10 GW of new and additional renewable energy generation capacity by 2020 and mobilize the African potential to generate at least 300 GW by 2030.

AREI is an outcome of African leadership in Workstream II of the Durban Platform including their May 2014 proposal for a global renewable energy support programme.
The initiative has been endorsed by African Heads of State (AU Assembly and Committee of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change) and Ministers of Environment (AMCEN) the G7 (Elmau Summit) the G20 (Energy Summit)…

Speaking during the launch of the project at the Africa Pavillion in Paris, Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), one of the major sponsors of the initiative, said the institution will triple its financing to climate change initiatives by 2020 dedicating 40 percent of the Bank’s resources to such efforts.

He regretted that Africa is often referred to as a dark continent because majority of the residents have no access to electricity. “Africa has 640 million of its people who don’t have access to electricity. A total of 7 million Africans have no access to clean energy and majority use charcoal and kerosene. This always leads to deaths. We must stop this,” Adesina said.

He added, “The initiative is a game-changer as Africa loses 4 per cent of its GDP due to lack of clean energy. Sunshine should do more than just nourish our crops. It must light our homes. Our massive water resources should do more than water our farms, it should power our industries. Potential is important, but homes and industries cannot be powered by potential. Africa must unlock its renewable energy potentials.”…

…The African Development Bank is working to put in place all necessary arrangements to host AREI Delivery Unit as well as serve as the Trustee as requested by the AREI Partners and ensure the immediate implementation of the initiative. It fits well with the Bank’s New Deal on Energy for Africa that has an ambitious target of universal access by 2025 (which entails 100% urban access and 95% rural access).

Child-centred adaptation: Realising children’s rights in a changing climate
Children in a Changing Climate Coalition – ChildFund Alliance, Plan International, Save the Children, UNICEF, World Vision International
December 2015 :: 28 pages
Pdf: https://plan-international.org/realising-childrens-rights-changing-climate#download-options

Overview
This Children in a Changing Climate coalition report argues that children should be a focus of efforts to address climate change and play an active part in the decisions that shape their present and future.

In developing countries, climate change is projected to exacerbate the top 5 causes of death for children under 5. Children are the least responsible for creating climate change but will bear the brunt of its impacts.

The report calls on governments to commit to 6 priority actions in the implementation of their climate change commitments and highlights child-centred case studies on tackling climate change from across the world.

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Our recommendations [Excerpt from report]
The analysis that follows shows that children should be a focus of efforts to address climate change, and play an active part in the decisions that shape their present and future. Members of the Children in a Changing Climate coalition call on governments to commit to six priority actions in the implementation of their climate change commitments.

1 Recognise the unique needs and capacities of children
Child-centred approaches to adaptation are effective and should be included prominently in local and national climate change and development planning processes. existing adaptation policies, guidelines and strategies should be reviewed to ensure that children are visible, that their rights are being respected, and that the root causes of girls’ and boys’ vulnerability are addressed. Newly developed plans, including national adaptation Plans, should include child-centred approaches and ensure that children’s rights are integrated into policy implementation.

2 Engage children in adaptation decision-making, implementation and monitoring
Children are capable of developing and implementing innovative solutions to complex problems. local and national decision makers should provide the space and resources for children to contribute to adaptation actions as well as to develop their own solutions to the specific local climate change impacts that affect them. children’s views and ideas, and their right to participate in decisions that affect them, must be respected.

3. Provide children access to the global stage – and listen to them
As countries implement commitments under the UNFCCC, children should be closely engaged in the design, implementation and monitoring of actions. children’s monitoring role should include a facility through which they are able to report back to future conferences of the Parties to help the UnFccc track progress and promote cross-learning between nations.

4 Build a climate change and adaptation literate generation
Under article 6 of the UNFCCC, governments have agreed that educating, empowering and engaging all stakeholders, including children and young people, is an essential part of the response to climate change. climate change and risk reduction education helps increase the adaptive capacity of children and their communities, fosters environmental stewardship and contributes to effective adaptation actions. increasing children’s understanding of the risks of climate change empowers them to influence decisions that affect their safety and wellbeing. governments should work to integrate climate change and adaptation into school curricula and ensure teacher training programmes include up-to-date and locally-relevant climate change information..

5 Focus on the most vulnerable
Adaptation efforts should focus on the most vulnerable groups, including children. actions should be based on meaningful, gender-sensitive and inclusive consultations and participatory design processes that result in programmes that fully address the needs of the most vulnerable. adaptation funding allocations should be based on need, with more funding flowing to local level actions in particularly vulnerable communities and high-risk areas.

6 Prioritise community-based adaptation
Governments should prioritise local-level adaptation actions when framing and implementing national adaptation Plans. Adaptation needs are greatest at the local level, where vulnerable people will be most affected. to date, the majority of adaptation funding has flowed to national-level projects. it is critical that funding for community-based adaptation is significantly scaled up to address priority needs and start closing the adaptation deficit. the specific needs, rights…

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About Children in a Changing Climate Coalition
The Children in a Changing Climate (CCC) coalition is a partnership of five leading child-centred development and humanitarian organisations: ChildFund Alliance, Plan International, Save the Children, UNICEF and World Vision International. We have a commitment to share knowledge, coordinate and work with children as agents of change, in full recognition of their capacity to prepare for and respond to shocks and stressors. The mandate of the CCC coalition is to advocate for and promote the rights of children in global agreements.

As child-centred organisations, CCC coalition members believe that addressing climate change is fundamental to safeguarding children’s rights. Strong and urgent action is required if we are to ensure our children inherit a world with greater opportunities for prosperity and wellbeing. And, with serious impacts now unavoidable, we believe that child-centred adaptation should be a key component of the global response to climate change.

While many governments and development partners, including the United Nations, have worked to address climate change, children have been under-represented in multilateral and national discussions to date. This must change if we are

to enact the words contained in the post-2015 agreements and empower children to create a better world. Members of the CCC coalition will continue to work with and for children to ensure their voices are heard, their needs met and their rights and capacities to act strengthened as the world strives to address the threat of climate change.

Refugee Crisis: Greece activates EU Civil protection mechanism, agrees Frontex operation at border with former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and triggers RABIT mechanism
Date: 03/12/2015
Greece has today taken three actions to address the refugee crisis, activating EU mechanisms designed to assist in crisis situations.

Greece has today activated the EU Civil Protection Mechanism to benefit from material support to help cope with the influx of refugees and asylum seekers in the country. Greece has requested items such as tents, generators, beds, sanitary equipment and emergency first aid kits. This voluntary delivery of aid is coordinated by the European Commission’s Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) which is working closely with the Greek authorities and the other participating states in the Mechanism for a swift response to the request.

Greece has also today agreed an operational plan with Frontex for a new operation at the Greek border with the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, where the agency will assist with the registration of migrants. The deployment of additional officers will begin next week.

Greece has also today put in a formal request for the deployment a Rapid Border Intervention Team operation to provide immediate border guard support at its external border in the Aegean islands. Frontex will now process the request as a matter of priority.

Over 50,000 people have arrived in Greece since 1 November. The scale is immense and the Commission is working very closely with the Greek authorities to assist them in this challenge…

Syrian refugee crisis: EU Trust Fund launches single biggest EU response package ever for €350 million, helping up to 1.5 million refugees and their host communities in Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Iraq
Brussels, 1 December 2015
Today’s € 350 million aid package under the EU Trust Fund is the single biggest EU measure in response to the Syrian refugee crisis to date.

Today, the EU Regional Trust Fund in Response to the Syrian crisis adopted a package of programmes totalling €350 million, the single biggest EU measure in response to the Syrian refugee crisis to date. The programmes will in the coming months help up to 1.5 million Syrian refugees and overstretched host communities in Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Iraq through the provision of basic education and child protection, better access to healthcare, improved water and waste-water infrastructure, as well as support to resilience, economic opportunities and social inclusion

Federica Mogherini, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission stated that: “Today’s decision is concrete evidence of EU solidarity with Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, those countries hosting the largest number of Syrian refugees who flee violence and persecutions. The war in Syria is the biggest humanitarian crisis we have been facing for decades, we have a duty to provide support to refugees and the communities that are hosting them.

“The Trust Fund will enable more than 1.5 million Syrians to receive access to education, water, food and health care. In addition, it will help us be ready to ensure that if a ceasefire is in place, we can rapidly deliver on the ground inside Syria. A lasting solution to the refugee crisis will only be achieved through a political process leading to a transition, led by Syrian themselves, to put the country back to stability and peace. The EU will spare no effort to contribute to launch the political process, in parallel to the fight against Daesh and terrorist organisations.”

Background:
The €350 million aid package consists of four different programmes:

€140 million education programme will finance a massive scale-up of support to the Ministries of Education in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan to enable them to enrol an additional 172,000 refugee children in school, while also providing for accelerated learning programmes, non-formal and early childhood education and child protection activities. It comprises 3 levels of action: (i) a multi-country programme with UNICEF focusing on Lebanon and Turkey, (ii) several multi-country actions by European NGO groupings focusing on retention support, non-formal and early childhood education, and (iii) additional direct support to the Jordanian Ministry of Education. Together, these actions will target up to 587,000 school-age children and adolescents that are currently out-of-school. As a result the EU Trust Fund financing will close the remaining gap to achieve the long pursued goal of bringing 1 million Syrian refugee children into education this school year.

€130 million resilience & local development programme responds to the urgent need of improving economic opportunities for refugees and vulnerable host communities beyond dependency on humanitarian relief. It will be implemented through a mix of single-country and multi-country activities by European NGOs, EU Member States development agencies, and the Red Cross/Red Crescent movement. The programme will target more than 200 communities and 400,000 people across the region and notably in Turkey, addressing basic financial needs of vulnerable families, engaging unemployed and disillusioned youth through work, skills development and community engagement in preparation of a future return to Syria, while also mitigating tensions between host and refugee communities.

€55 million health programme aims to widen and enhance access of refugees across the region to primary, secondary and tertiary health care, psycho-social support, and protection from sexual and gender-based violence. It will reach and benefit at least 700,000 refugees with a focus on Turkey and Lebanon. In addition, specific healthcare support is foreseen in northern Iraq.

€25 million will be used to set-up a water, sanitation and hygiene programme for Syrian refugees and host communities in Jordan and Lebanon, where the needs for supporting municipal water and wastewater services are biggest. It is expected to benefit up to 1 million people…

The State of World Population 2015 :: SHELTER FROM THE STORM – A transformative agenda for women and girls in a crisis-prone world
UNFPA, United Nations Population Fund, 2015 :: 140 pages
ISBN 978-0-89714-987-7
Pdf: http://r.smartbrief.com/resp/hjwiCccQzeCTrGfbCidafWBVtjqM

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Foreword
More than 100 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance—more than at any time since the end of the Second World War. Among those displaced by conflict or uprooted by disaster are tens of millions of women and adolescent girls. This report is a call to action to meet their needs and ensure their rights.

While remarkable progress has been achieved during the past decade protecting the health and rights of women and adolescent girls in humanitarian settings, the growth in need has outstripped the growth in funding and services. Yet, these services are of critical importance, especially for very young adolescent girls, who are the most vulnerable and least able to confront the many challenges they face, even in stable times…

…Today about three fifths of all maternal deaths take place in humanitarian and fragile contexts. Every day 507 women and adolescent girls die from complications of pregnancy and childbirth in emergency situations and in fragile States. And gender-based violence continues to
take a brutal toll, shattering lives and prospects for peace and recovery.

Together we must transform humanitarian action by placing the health and rights of women and young people at the centre of our priorities. At the same time, we must invest heavily in institutions and actions that build girls’ and women’s human capital and agency and in the resilience of communities and nations over the long run so that when a new crisis strikes, disruption and dislocation may be minimized and recovery may be accelerated.

For its part, UNFPA remains committed to the full realization of the sexual and reproductive
health and rights of all women and girls, wherever they live, and under all conditions, crisis or otherwise, at all times. The surfeit of conflicts and disasters all around us today means that UNFPA is delivering a larger share of its services in crisis settings.

When women and girls can obtain sexual and reproductive health services, along with a variety of humanitarian programmes that deliberately tackle inequalities, the benefits of interventions grow exponentially and carry over from the acute phase of a crisis well into the future as countries and communities rebuild and people reclaim their lives.

Together we must strive for a world where women and girls are no longer disadvantaged in multiple ways but are equally empowered to realize their full potential, and contribute to the development and stability of their communities and nations—before, during or after a crisis.

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Dr. Babatunde Osotimehin
United Nations Under-Secretary-General and
Executive Director
UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund