Food Policy
Volume 52, In Progress (April 2015)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03069192

On the political economy of guest worker programs in agriculture
Original Research Article
Pages 1-8
Bradley J. Rickard
Abstract
Guest workers have provided a source of agricultural labor supply in many countries. Recent legislative proposals on immigration reform in the United States have renewed discussions about the role of guest worker programs, and highlighted the arguments for and against such programs. Even within the agricultural sector, there has not been strong broad-based support for an expansion in the number of guest workers. A model is developed that considers competing interests between commodity groups (horticulture crops and grain crops) to explain this lack of support, and then a series of simulations are conducted to highlight the possible economic effects of an expanded guest worker program. Results suggest that an increase in the labor supply would have much larger economic impacts for horticultural producers and firms in the supporting input markets. Furthermore, under some conditions, simulation outcomes show how an increase in the labor supply may lead to small revenue losses for both producers and input suppliers in grain markets.

Health Research Policy and Systems
http://www.health-policy-systems.com/content
[Accessed 14 March 2015]

Review
A systematic review of implementation frameworks of innovations in healthcare and resulting generic implementation framework
Joanna C Moullin1*, Daniel Sabater-Hernández12, Fernando Fernandez-Llimos3 and Shalom I Benrimoj1
Author Affiliations
Health Research Policy and Systems 2015, 13:16 doi:10.1186/s12961-015-0005-z
Published: 14 March 2015
Abstract (provisional)
Background
Implementation science and knowledge translation have developed across multiple disciplines with the common aim of bringing innovations to practice. Numerous implementation frameworks, models, and theories have been developed to target a diverse array of innovations. As such, it is plausible that not all frameworks include the full range of concepts now thought to be involved in implementation. Users face the decision of selecting a single or combining multiple implementation frameworks. To aid this decision, the aim of this review was to assess the comprehensiveness of existing frameworks.
Methods
A systematic search was undertaken in PubMed to identify implementation frameworks of innovations in healthcare published from 2004 to May 2013. Additionally, titles and abstracts from Implementation Science journal and references from identified papers were reviewed. The orientation, type, and presence of stages and domains, along with the degree of inclusion and depth of analysis of factors, strategies, and evaluations of implementation of included frameworks were analysed.
Results
Frameworks were assessed individually and grouped according to their targeted innovation. Frameworks for particular innovations had similar settings, end-users, and ‘type’ (descriptive, prescriptive, explanatory, or predictive). On the whole, frameworks were descriptive and explanatory more often than prescriptive and predictive. A small number of the reviewed frameworks covered an implementation concept(s) in detail, however, overall, there was limited degree and depth of analysis of implementation concepts. The core implementation concepts across the frameworks were collated to form a Generic Implementation Framework, which includes the process of implementation (often portrayed as a series of stages and/or steps), the innovation to be implemented, the context in which the implementation is to occur (divided into a range of domains), and influencing factors, strategies, and evaluations.
Conclusions
The selection of implementation framework(s) should be based not solely on the healthcare innovation to be implemented, but include other aspects of the framework’s orientation, e.g., the setting and end-user, as well as the degree of inclusion and depth of analysis of the implementation concepts. The resulting generic structure provides researchers, policy-makers, health administrators, and practitioners a base that can be used as guidance for their implementation efforts.

Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies
Volume 13, Issue 1, 2015
http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/wimm20/current#.VQS0KOFnBhW

Mexican Immigrant Women Searching for a Solution to Intimate Partner Abuse: Common Breaking Points and Type of Help Needed
Stavroula Kyriakakis, Subadra Panchanadeswaran & Tonya Edmond
pages 1-18
DOI:10.1080/15562948.2013.855859
Published online: 11 Mar 2015

Exploring Mental Health Screening Feasibility and Training of Refugee Health Coordinators
Patricia Shannon, Jennifer McCleary, Elizabeth Wieling, Hyojin Im, Emily Becher & Ann O’Fallon
pages 80-102
DOI:10.1080/15562948.2014.894170
Published online: 11 Mar 2015

Knowledge Management for Development Journal
Vol 10, No 3 (2014)
http://journal.km4dev.org/journal/index.php/km4dj/index

Learning 3.0: collaborating for impact in large development organizations
Nancy White, Rachel Cardone, Aldo de Moor
Abstract
This discussion paper builds on the body of research and practice about technology stewardship originally explored in Digital Habitats, and on the findings from an initial probe into the experiences of five development agencies using collaboration platform technologies. The probe was conducted from September 2013 through February 2014. We propose a framework for looking at productive practices in selecting, configuring and supporting use of collaboration technologies in international development organizations by focusing on the opportunities that exist in the boundaries between different parts of a development organization and different kinds of interactions that lead to learning and development impact. We suggest that there is a very useful opportunity to expand this initial probe using collaboration pattern language and a complexity lens to develop a useful repertoire of technology stewarding practices for collaboration in international development with the goal of supporting greater impact of development work.

Collaborative learning for fostering change in complex social-ecological systems: a transdisciplinary perspective on food and farming systems
Maria J. Restrepo, Margareta A. Lelea, Anja Christinck, Christian Hülsebusch, Brigitte A. Kaufmann
Abstract
This paper aims to conceptualize collaborative learning methodologies used in transdisciplinary research projects dealing with change in complex situations, such as farming and food systems of developing countries. For this purpose we propose a framework for understanding collaborative learning approaches based on theoretical considerations and 18 selected case studies. The cases were assessed that have a clear focus on collaborative learning in the context of farming and food systems of developing countries. We suggest that a ‘collaborative learning’ process includes four steps: (A) establishing a cooperation, (B) dialogue, (C) discovery, and (D) application of new knowledge. The necessity of making the process of actor identification more explicit is highlighted. Furthermore, many projects did not fully conceptualize application of knowledge as part of the research. Trust among the participants was a key to promoting knowledge exchange and mature reflection, and results from a carefully designed and facilitated process. If this was the case, participants perceived that they gained something meaningful, such as new relationships, or new knowledge and skills. Awareness of their role in the process of change was strengthened.

Navigating complexity: adaptive management and organizational learning in a development project in Northern Uganda
Amir Allana, Timothy Sparkman
Abstract
Adaptive management is a management paradigm for intervening in complex, unpredictable systems where continual learning and adaptation is vital for success. This management approach requires a fundamentally different set of tools, processes, and most importantly, staff behaviors and organizational culture than ‘traditional’ management. A facilitative approach to development, where the goal is creating systemic change that spreads in networks of local businesses, government, and civil society organizations, necessitates an adaptive approach. Mercy Corps Uganda’s Northern Karamoja Growth, Health, and Governance Program (GHG) has been an ongoing experiment in applying the principles of adaptive management and facilitation. This article details two examples from GHG where adaptation has occurred, and provides an analysis of the tools, processes, and organizational culture that exists. Three salient takeaways for effective facilitation are elaborated on: the importance of staff behaviors and underlying beliefs, particularly with regards to ‘failure’, flexibility to experiment, dissent & debate, and curiosity with the subject matter of their work; importance of consistent messaging from senior management with regards to the same; and tools and processes playing a support function to these behaviours, rather than being their source. Lessons and implications are drawn out from the GHG experience for funders and implementing organizations wanting to apply adaptive management in the context of development programming. These include building flexibility into budgeting and contracts, rethinking the structure and content of reports, and utilizing alternative hiring criteria to attract senior managers who are more likely to succeed at adaptive management.

The Lancet
Mar 14, 2015 Volume 385 Number 9972 p915-1044 e21-e22
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/current

Editorial
The future of health in Nigeria
The Lancet
Summary
In a letter in today’s issue, Seye Abimbola and colleagues highlight the health effects of the 6 year Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria. The militant group now controls three states in the northeast of the country. Maternal and child mortality are worse in these states than in the rest of Nigeria, there are fears about undetected polio cases, and more than 980 000 people are internally displaced. Conditions are dire for the internally displaced population who live in informal and formal camps with minimum access to health care and other basic needs, such as food and clean water.

Special Report
Syrian crisis: health experts say more can be done
Sophie Cousins
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60515-3
As the Syrian conflict enters its fifth year this month, doctors and public health experts highlight the major health problems and the actions needed to address them. Sophie Cousins reports.

Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990–2025: an analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control
Ver Bilano, Stuart Gilmour, Trevor Moffiet, Edouard Tursan d’Espaignet, Gretchen A Stevens, Alison Commar, Frank Tuyl, Irene Hudson, Kenji Shibuya

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)
Claudia Allemani, Hannah K Weir, Helena Carreira, Rhea Harewood, Devon Spika, Xiao-Si Wang, Finian Bannon, Jane V Ahn, Christopher J Johnson, Audrey Bonaventure, Rafael Marcos-Gragera, Charles Stiller, Gulnar Azevedo e Silva, Wan-Qing Chen, Olufemi J Ogunbiyi, Bernard Rachet, Matthew J Soeberg, Hui You, Tomohiro Matsuda, Magdalena Bielska-Lasota, Hans Storm, Thomas C Tucker, Michel P Coleman, the CONCORD Working Group
Open Access

Nature
Volume 519 Number 7542 pp129-256 12 March 2015
http://www.nature.com/nature/current_issue.html

Comment
Global change: Put people at the centre of global risk management
Jan Willem Erisman, Guy Brasseur, Philippe Ciais, Nick van Eekeren & Thomas L. Theis
11 March 2015

An individual focus is needed to assess interconnected threats and build resilience worldwide, urge Jan Willem Erisman and colleagues.
Globalization is changing the nature of risk. Natural and social systems — from climate to energy, food, water and economies — are tightly coupled. Abrupt changes in one have a domino effect on others. Floods in Thailand in 2010, for example, led to a global shortage of computer hard disks as a result of factories closing, as well as more than US$330 million in damage and around 250 deaths.
The exposure of people and assets to risks is increasing worldwide. From 1980 to 2012, annual economic losses from environmental disasters rose more than sevenfold, from about $20 billion to $150 billion a year1.
Yet most risk assessments ignore networked threats2, 3. The annual Global Risks report of the World Economic Forum considers risks qualitatively, based on the views of experts4. But global outlooks remain sectorial and too coarse to guide individuals, organizations, municipalities or nations.
Risk reports also neglect the collective impacts of personal choices3. For example, eating more beef causes deforestation and biodiversity loss in the Amazon. Local dams for hydropower or water storage alter sediment flows to fertile coastal regions. The movement of people from the countryside to cities affects water, food, climatic and energy systems planet-wide.
Understanding networked risks is essential for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, which are being defined this year5. The 17 proposed goals are interdependent. For example, the stimulation of renewable energies and biofuels to address climate change also affects food production and water resources…

New England Journal of Medicine
March 5, 2015 Vol. 372 No. 10
http://www.nejm.org/toc/nejm/medical-journal

Special Article
Compliance with Results Reporting at ClinicalTrials.gov
Monique L. Anderson, M.D., Karen Chiswell, Ph.D., Eric D. Peterson, M.D., M.P.H., Asba Tasneem, Ph.D., James Topping, M.S., and Robert M. Califf, M.D.
N Engl J Med 2015; 372:1031-1039 March 12, 2015
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMsa1409364
Abstract
Background
The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) mandates timely reporting of results of applicable clinical trials to ClinicalTrials.gov. We characterized the proportion of applicable clinical trials with publicly available results and determined independent factors associated with the reporting of results.
Full Text of Background…
Methods
Using an algorithm based on input from the National Library of Medicine, we identified trials that were likely to be subject to FDAAA provisions (highly likely applicable clinical trials, or HLACTs) from 2008 through 2013. We determined the proportion of HLACTs that reported results within the 12-month interval mandated by the FDAAA or at any time during the 5-year study period. We used regression models to examine characteristics associated with reporting at 12 months and throughout the 5-year study period.
Full Text of Methods…
Results
From all the trials at ClinicalTrials.gov, we identified 13,327 HLACTs that were terminated or completed from January 1, 2008, through August 31, 2012. Of these trials, 77.4% were classified as drug trials. A total of 36.9% of the trials were phase 2 studies, and 23.4% were phase 3 studies; 65.6% were funded by industry. Only 13.4% of trials reported summary results within 12 months after trial completion, whereas 38.3% reported results at any time up to September 27, 2013. Timely reporting was independently associated with factors such as FDA oversight, a later trial phase, and industry funding. A sample review suggested that 45% of industry-funded trials were not required to report results, as compared with 6% of trials funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and 9% of trials that were funded by other government or academic institutions.
Full Text of Results…
Conclusions
Despite ethical and legal obligations to disclose findings promptly, most HLACTs did not report results to ClinicalTrials.gov in a timely fashion during the study period. Industry-funded trials adhered to legal obligations more often than did trials funded by the NIH or other government or academic institutions. (Funded by the Clinical Trials Transformation Initiative and the NIH.)

PLoS Currents: Outbreaks
http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/
(Accessed 14 March 2015)

Modeling the 2014 Ebola Virus Epidemic – Agent-Based Simulations, Temporal Analysis and Future Predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone
March 9, 2015 • Research
We developed an agent-based model to investigate the epidemic dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Liberia and Sierra Leone from May 27 to December 21, 2014. The dynamics of the agent-based simulator evolve on small-world transmission networks of sizes equal to the population of each country, with adjustable densities to account for the effects of public health intervention policies and individual behavioral responses to the evolving epidemic. Based on time series of the official case counts from the World Health Organization (WHO), we provide estimates for key epidemiological variables by employing the so-called Equation-Free approach. The underlying transmission networks were characterized by rather random structures in the two countries with densities decreasing by ~19% from the early (May 27-early August) to the last period (mid October-December 21). Our estimates for the values of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate, are very close to the ones reported by the WHO Ebola response team during the early period of the epidemic (until September 14) that were calculated based on clinical data. Specifically, regarding the effective reproductive number Re, our analysis suggests that until mid October, Re was above 2.3 in both countries; from mid October to December 21, Re dropped well below unity in Liberia, indicating a saturation of the epidemic, while in Sierra Leone it was around 1.9, indicating an ongoing epidemic. Accordingly, a ten-week projection from December 21 estimated that the epidemic will fade out in Liberia in early March; in contrast, our results flashed a note of caution for Sierra Leone since the cumulative number of cases could reach as high as 18,000, and the number of deaths might exceed 5,000, by early March 2015. However, by processing the reported data of the very last period (December 21, 2014-January 18, 2015), we obtained more optimistic estimates indicative of a remission of the epidemic in Sierra Leone, as reflected by the derived Re (~0.82, 95% CI: 0.81-0.83)

PLoS Medicine
(Accessed 14 March 2015)
http://www.plosmedicine.org/

Policy Forum
A Public Health Approach to Hepatitis C Control in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Amitabh B. Suthar, Anthony D. Harries
Published: March 10, 2015
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001795
Summary Points
:: New oral short-duration regimens using direct-acting antiviral medicines for hepatitis C virus (HCV) have the potential to facilitate treatment and improve outcomes.
:: Translating scientific advances into reduced disease burden requires well-designed programmes encompassing prevention, screening, treatment, and strategic information.
:: Engagement from countries, civil society, donors, and policymakers is needed to generate political commitment, mobilise resources, and reduce diagnostic and medicine costs for HCV.
:: Countries should estimate the resources required to implement planned HCV prevention, screening, and treatment strategies and their expected health, societal, and financial benefits to mobilise domestic and international funding.
:: Countries could integrate HCV prevention, screening, treatment, and strategic information into HIV/AIDS programmes for financial, infrastructural, and health workforce efficiencies.

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
http://www.plosntds.org/
(Accessed 14 March 2015)

Viewpoints
Good and Bad News about Ebola
A. Townsend Peterson
Published: March 12, 2015
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003509
[Concluding text]
…If the present situation with Ebola is to offer any lessons, they are that the only hope for serious investment in reducing the incidence and impact of such diseases is via spread to developed countries. Once such spread occurs, research and pharmaceutical investment will most likely follow. Ebola is a positive example, and clearly Ebola research will enter a new phase of progress, innovation, funding, production of key pharmaceuticals, and improved care, hopefully for all who might be infected by this virus.
In effect, what Ebola did was to cross the line between being a “neglected tropical disease” and being an “emerging infection.” The former set of diseases collectively exert an enormous burden in the developing world that may be constant or episodic, but are rather ubiquitous in those regions, affecting the affluent only when they venture into those regions [13,14]. The latter, on the other hand, are much less predictable, but garner more immediate attention on the world scene, precisely because they may affect affluent countries. How many other neglected diseases must await this process of spread to affluent regions and infection of affluent people, making the transition from neglected tropical disease to emerging infection, before they also will see investment and innovation?

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
http://www.plosntds.org/
(Accessed 14 March 2015)

Flexibility of Oral Cholera Vaccine Dosing—A Randomized Controlled Trial Measuring Immune Responses Following Alternative Vaccination Schedules in a Cholera Hyper-Endemic Zone
Suman Kanungo, Sachin N. Desai, Ranjan Kumar Nandy, Mihir Kumar Bhattacharya, Deok Ryun Kim, Anuradha Sinha, Tanmay Mahapatra, Jae Seung Yang, Anna Lena Lopez, Byomkesh Manna, Barnali Bannerjee, Mohammad Ali, Mandeep Singh Dhingra, Ananga Mohan Chandra, John D. Clemens, Dipika Sur, Thomas F. Wierzba
Research Article | published 12 Mar 2015 | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003574
Abstract
Background
A bivalent killed whole cell oral cholera vaccine has been found to be safe and efficacious for five years in the cholera endemic setting of Kolkata, India, when given in a two dose schedule, two weeks apart. A randomized controlled trial revealed that the immune response was not significantly increased following the second dose compared to that after the first dose. We aimed to evaluate the impact of an extended four week dosing schedule on vibriocidal response.
Methodology/Principal Findings
In this double blind randomized controlled non-inferiority trial, 356 Indian, non-pregnant residents aged 1 year or older were randomized to receive two doses of oral cholera vaccine at 14 and 28 day intervals. We compared vibriocidal immune responses between these schedules. Among adults, no significant differences were noted when comparing the rates of seroconversion for V. cholerae O1 Inaba following two dose regimens administered at a 14 day interval (55%) vs the 28 day interval (58%). Similarly, no differences in seroconversion were demonstrated in children comparing the 14 (80%) and 28 day intervals (77%). Following 14 and 28 day dosing intervals, vibriocidal response rates against V. cholerae O1 Ogawa were 45% and 49% in adults and 73% and 72% in children respectively. Responses were lower for V. cholerae O139, but similar between dosing schedules for adults (20%, 20%) and children (28%, 20%).
Conclusions/Significance
Comparable immune responses and safety profiles between the two dosing schedules support the option for increased flexibility of current OCV dosing. Further operational research using a longer dosing regimen will provide answers to improve implementation and delivery of cholera vaccination in endemic and epidemic outbreak scenarios.
Author Summary
The five year efficacy results of the bivalent, killed whole cell oral cholera vaccine was shown to offer 65% protection in cholera endemic Kolkata. Currently, two oral cholera vaccines (OCV) are prequalified by the World Health Organization: the whole cell recombinant cholera toxin B subunit vaccine (Dukoral), and the bivalent killed whole cell only OCV (Shanchol). Shanchol, which is less expensive and possibly associated with longer protection, is recommended in a two dose schedule to be given at two weeks apart. Large scale cholera outbreaks often affect vulnerable populations with limited access to care. Strict dosing schedules can create further logistical barriers, hindering proper vaccine delivery to affected residents returning for their second OCV dose. In this study, 356 participants aged 1 year or older were randomized to receive two doses of OCV at 14 or 28 day intervals, for which vibriocidal immune responses were compared. Similar immune responses were demonstrated between a two and four week OCV dosing schedule, which can increase flexibility when offered as part of a targeted vaccination program. This can further serve to increase adherence and completion of the recommended dosing regimen, as well as providing a platform to increase coverage of other beneficial non-vaccine interventions.

PLoS One
[Accessed 14 March 2015]
http://www.plosone.org/

Cost Evaluation of Reproductive and Primary Health Care Mobile Service Delivery for Women in Two Rural Districts in South Africa
Kathryn Schnippel, Naomi Lince-Deroche, Theo van den Handel, Seithati Molefi, Suann Bruce, Cynthia Firnhaber
Research Article | published 09 Mar 2015 | PLOS ONE 10.1371/journal.pone.0119236
Abstract
Background
Cervical cancer screening is a critical health service that is often unavailable to women in under-resourced settings. In order to expand access to this and other reproductive and primary health care services, a South African non-governmental organization established a van-based mobile clinic in two rural districts in South Africa. To inform policy and budgeting, we conducted a cost evaluation of this service delivery model.
Methods
The evaluation was retrospective (October 2012–September 2013 for one district and April–September 2013 for the second district) and conducted from a provider cost perspective. Services evaluated included cervical cancer screening, HIV counselling and testing, syndromic management of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), breast exams, provision of condoms, contraceptives, and general health education. Fixed costs, including vehicle purchase and conversion, equipment, operating costs and mobile clinic staffing, were collected from program records and public sector pricing information. The number of women accessing different services was multiplied by ingredients-based variable costs, reflecting the consumables required. All costs are reported in 2013 USD.
Results
Fixed costs accounted for most of the total annual costs of the mobile clinics (85% and 94% for the two districts); the largest contributor to annual fixed costs was staff salaries. Average costs per patient were driven by the total number of patients seen, at $46.09 and $76.03 for the two districts. Variable costs for Pap smears were higher than for other services provided, and some services, such as breast exams and STI and tuberculosis symptoms screening, had no marginal cost.
Conclusions
Staffing costs are the largest component of providing mobile health services to rural communities. Yet, in remote areas where patient volumes do not exceed nursing staff capacity, incorporating multiple services within a cervical cancer screening program is an approach to potentially expand access to health care without added costs.

PLoS One
[Accessed 14 March 2015]
http://www.plosone.org/

A Survey of UK Healthcare Workers’ Attitudes on Volunteering to Help with the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa
Lance Turtle, Fiona McGill, Judy Bettridge, Claire Matata, Rob Christley, Tom Solomon
Research Article | published 11 Mar 2015 | PLOS ONE 10.1371/journal.pone.0120013
Abstract
Objective
To understand the barriers and enablers for UK healthcare workers who are considering going to work in the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa, but have not yet volunteered.
Design
After focus group discussions, and a pilot questionnaire, an anonymous survey was conducted using SurveyMonkey to determine whether people had considered going to West Africa, what factors might make them more or less likely to volunteer, and whether any of these were modifiable factors.
Participants
The survey was publicised among doctors, nurses, laboratory staff and allied health professionals. 3109 people answered the survey, of whom 472 (15%) were considering going to work in the epidemic but had not yet volunteered. 1791 (57.6%) had not considered going, 704 (22.6%) had considered going but decided not to, 53 (1.7%) had volunteered to go and 14 (0.45%) had already been and worked in the epidemic.
Results
For those considering going to West Africa, the most important factor preventing them from volunteering was a lack of information to help them decide; fear of getting Ebola and partners’ concerns came next. Uncertainty about their potential role, current work commitments and inability to get agreement from their employer were also important barriers, whereas clarity over training would be an important enabler. In contrast, for those who were not considering going, or who had decided against going, family considerations and partner concerns were the most important factors.
Conclusions
More UK healthcare workers would volunteer to help tackle Ebola in West Africa if there was better information available, including clarity about roles, cover arrangements, and training. This could be achieved with a well-publicised high quality portal of reliable information.

PNAS – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
(Accessed 14 March 2015)
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/

The effects of reputational and social knowledge on cooperation
Edoardo Galloa,b,1,2 and Chang Yanc,1,2
Author Affiliations
Edited by Martin A. Nowak, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and accepted by the Editorial Board February 5, 2015 (received for review August 18, 2014)
Significance
Cooperation is essential for societies to prosper. Recent experiments show that cooperation emerges in dynamic networks in which subjects can select their connections. However, these studies fixed the amount of reputation information available and did not display the network to subjects. Here, we systematically vary the knowledge available to subjects about reputation and the network to investigate experimentally their roles in determining cooperation in dynamic networks. Common knowledge about everyone’s reputation is the main driver of cooperation leading to dense and clustered networks. The addition of common knowledge about the network affects the distribution of cooperative activity: cooperators form a separate community and achieve a higher payoff from within-community interactions than members of the less cooperative community.
Abstract
The emergence and sustenance of cooperative behavior is fundamental for a society to thrive. Recent experimental studies have shown that cooperation increases in dynamic networks in which subjects can choose their partners. However, these studies did not vary reputational knowledge, or what subjects know about other’s past actions, which has long been recognized as an important factor in supporting cooperation. They also did not give subjects access to global social knowledge, or information on who is connected to whom in the group. As a result, it remained unknown how reputational and social knowledge foster cooperative behavior in dynamic networks both independently and by complementing each other. In an experimental setting, we show that global reputational knowledge is crucial to sustaining a high level of cooperation and welfare. Cooperation is associated with the emergence of dense and clustered networks with highly cooperative hubs. Global social knowledge has no effect on the aggregate level of cooperation. A community analysis shows that the addition of global social knowledge to global reputational knowledge affects the distribution of cooperative activity: cooperators form a separate community that achieves a higher cooperation level than the community of defectors. Members of the community of cooperators achieve a higher payoff from interactions within the community than members of the less cooperative community.

PNAS – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
(Accessed 14 March 2015)
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/

Human Ebola virus infection results in substantial immune activation
Anita K. McElroya,b, Rama S. Akondyc,d, Carl W. Davisc,d, Ali H. Ellebedyc,d, Aneesh K. Mehtae, Colleen S. Krafte,f, G. Marshall Lyone, Bruce S. Ribnere, Jay Varkeye, John Sidneyg,
Alessandro Setteg, Shelley Campbella, Ute Ströhera, Inger Damona, Stuart T. Nichola, Christina F. Spiropouloua,1, and Rafi Ahmedc,d,1
Author Affiliations
Contributed by Rafi Ahmed, February 7, 2015 (sent for review January 6, 2015; reviewed by Lawrence Corey and Barton F. Haynes)
Significance
In 2014, Ebola virus became a household term. The ongoing outbreak in West Africa is the largest Ebola virus outbreak ever recorded, with over 20,000 cases and over 8,000 deaths to date. Very little is known about the human cellular immune response to Ebola virus infection, and this lack of knowledge has hindered development of effective therapies and vaccines. In this study, we characterize the human immune response to Ebola virus infection in four patients. We define the kinetics of T- and B-cell activation, and determine which viral proteins are targets of the Ebola virus-specific T-cell response in humans.
Abstract
Four Ebola patients received care at Emory University Hospital, presenting a unique opportunity to examine the cellular immune responses during acute Ebola virus infection. We found striking activation of both B and T cells in all four patients. Plasmablast frequencies were 10–50% of B cells, compared with less than 1% in healthy individuals. Many of these proliferating plasmablasts were IgG-positive, and this finding coincided with the presence of Ebola virus-specific IgG in the serum. Activated CD4 T cells ranged from 5 to 30%, compared with 1–2% in healthy controls. The most pronounced responses were seen in CD8 T cells, with over 50% of the CD8 T cells expressing markers of activation and proliferation. Taken together, these results suggest that all four patients developed robust immune responses during the acute phase of Ebola virus infection, a finding that would not have been predicted based on our current assumptions about the highly immunosuppressive nature of Ebola virus. Also, quite surprisingly, we found sustained immune activation after the virus was cleared from the plasma, observed most strikingly in the persistence of activated CD8 T cells, even 1 mo after the patients’ discharge from the hospital. These results suggest continued antigen stimulation after resolution of the disease. From these convalescent time points, we identified CD4 and CD8 T-cell responses to several Ebola virus proteins, most notably the viral nucleoprotein. Knowledge of the viral proteins targeted by T cells during natural infection should be useful in designing vaccines against Ebola virus.

Science
13 March 2015 vol 347, issue 6227, pages 1169-1284
http://www.sciencemag.org/current.dtl

Review
Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health
Hans Heesterbeek1,*, Roy M. Anderson2, Viggo Andreasen3, Shweta Bansal4, Daniela De Angelis5, Chris Dye6, Ken T. D. Eames7, W. John Edmunds7, Simon D. W. Frost8, Sebastian Funk4, T. Deirdre Hollingsworth9,10, Thomas House11, Valerie Isham12, Petra Klepac8, Justin Lessler13, James O. Lloyd-Smith14, C. Jessica E. Metcalf15, Denis Mollison16, Lorenzo Pellis11,
Juliet R. C. Pulliam17,18, Mick G. Roberts19, Cecile Viboud18, Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration
Author Affiliations
1Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands.
2School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, UK.
3Roskilde University, Roskilde, Denmark.
4Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
5MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK.
6WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
7Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
8University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
9School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, UK.
10School of Tropical Medicine, University of Liverpool, UK.
11Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
12Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, UK.
13Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
14Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
15Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
16Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK.
17Department of Biology–Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
18Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, NIH, Bethesda, MD, USA.
19Institute of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Despite many notable successes in prevention and control, infectious diseases remain an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales that span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or persist in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, human connectivity, population growth, urbanization, environmental and land-use change, as well as changing human behavior, present global challenges for prevention and control. Faced with this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for understanding epidemiological patterns and for developing and evaluating evidence for decision-making in global health.
ADVANCES
During the past 50 years, the study of infectious disease dynamics has matured into a rich interdisciplinary field at the intersection of mathematics, epidemiology, ecology, evolutionary biology, immunology, sociology, and public health. The practical challenges range from establishing appropriate data collection to managing increasingly large volumes of information. The theoretical challenges require fundamental study of many-layered, nonlinear systems in which infections evolve and spread and where key events can be governed by unpredictable pathogen biology or human behavior. In this Review, we start with an examination of real-time outbreak response using the West African Ebola epidemic as an example. Here, the challenges range from underreporting of cases and deaths, and missing information on the impact of control measures to understanding human responses. The possibility of future zoonoses tests our ability to detect anomalous outbreaks and to estimate human-to-human transmissibility against a backdrop of ongoing zoonotic spillover while also assessing the risk of more dangerous strains evolving. Increased understanding of the dynamics of infections in food webs and ecosystems where host and nonhost species interact is key. Simultaneous multispecies infections are increasingly recognized as a notable public health burden, yet our understanding of how different species of pathogens interact within hosts is rudimentary. Pathogen genomics has become an essential tool for drawing inferences about evolution and transmission and, here but also in general, heterogeneity is the major challenge. Methods that depart from simplistic assumptions about random mixing are yielding new insights into the dynamics of transmission and control. There is rapid growth in estimation of model parameters from mismatched or incomplete data, and in contrasting model output with real-world observations. New data streams on social connectivity and behavior are being used, and combining data collected from very different sources and scales presents important challenges.
All these mathematical endeavors have the potential to feed into public health policy and, indeed, an increasingly wide range of models is being used to support infectious disease control, elimination, and eradication efforts.
OUTLOOK
Mathematical modeling has the potential to probe the apparently intractable complexity of infectious disease dynamics. Coupled to continuous dialogue between decision-makers and the multidisciplinary infectious disease community, and by drawing on new data streams, mathematical models can lay bare mechanisms of transmission and indicate new approaches to prevention and control that help to shape national and international public health policy.

Science
13 March 2015 vol 347, issue 6227, pages 1169-1284
http://www.sciencemag.org/current.dtl

n Depth
Infectious Diseases
As Ebola fades, a new threat
Leslie Roberts
A second, often overlooked, public health crisis is brewing in the countries hardest hit by Ebola, epidemiologists warn. The Ebola epidemic has devastated already weak public health systems and disrupted childhood vaccinations in Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone. As a result, unless action is taken quickly, preventable childhood diseases will likely soar. Measles, in particular, is considered a sentinel of a broken health system, often hitting early and hard in the aftermath of a disaster. In a paper in this week’s issue of Science, researchers put some sobering numbers on the size of a potential measles outbreak in the region post-Ebola. In the worst case, they warn, a measles outbreak could kill thousands more people than Ebola has.

Report
Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola
Saki Takahashi1, C. Jessica E. Metcalf1,2, Matthew J. Ferrari3, William J. Moss4, Shaun A. Truelove4, Andrew J. Tatem5,6,7, Bryan T. Grenfell1,6, Justin Lessler4,*
Author Affiliations
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
2Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
3Centre for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USA.
4Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
5Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.
6Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
7Flowminder Foundation, 17177 Stockholm, Sweden.
Abstract
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has caused substantial morbidity and mortality. The outbreak has also disrupted health care services, including childhood vaccinations, creating a second public health crisis. We project that after 6 to 18 months of disruptions, a large connected cluster of children unvaccinated for measles will accumulate across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This pool of susceptibility increases the expected size of a regional measles outbreak from 127,000 to 227,000 cases after 18 months, resulting in 2000 to 16,000 additional deaths (comparable to the numbers of Ebola deaths reported thus far). There is a clear path to avoiding outbreaks of childhood vaccine-preventable diseases once the threat of Ebola begins to recede: an aggressive regional vaccination campaign aimed at age groups left unprotected because of health care disruptions.

Stability: International Journal of Security & Development
[accessed 14 March 2015]
http://www.stabilityjournal.org/articles

Research Article
The Politics, Practice and Paradox of ‘Ethnic Security’ in Bosnia-Herzegovina
12 Mar 2015
4(1):Art. 11
Vesna Bojicic-Dzelilovic

Research Article
‘And Then He Switched off the Phone’: Mobile Phones, Participation and Political Accountability in South Sudan’s Western Equatorial State
9 Mar 2015
4(1):Art. 10
Mareike Schomerus, Anouk Rigterink

The Sentinel

Human Rights Action :: Humanitarian Response :: Health ::
Holistic Development :: Sustainable Resilience
__________________________________________________
Week ending 7 March 2015

This weekly digest is intended to aggregate and distill key content from a broad spectrum of practice domains and organization types including key agencies/IGOs, NGOs, governments, academic and research institutions, consortiums and collaborations, foundations, and commercial organizations. We also monitor a spectrum of peer-reviewed journals and general media channels. The Sentinel’s geographic scope is global/regional but selected country-level content is included. We recognize that this spectrum/scope yields an indicative and not an exhaustive product. Comments and suggestions should be directed to:

David R. Curry
Editor &
Founding Managing Director
GE2P2 – Center for Governance, Evidence, Ethics, Policy, Practice
david.r.curry@ge2p2center.net

pdf verion: The Sentinel_ week ending 7 March 2015

blog edition: comprised of the 35+ entries to be posted below on 8 March 2015

States must uphold human rights principles in struggle against violent extremism
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein

GENEVA (5 March 2015) – UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, in a major speech on Thursday, warned that the world may be “at a turning point in our young and troubled century,” and urged States not “to lose their grasp” of the human rights principles underlying their societies in their struggle against violent extremism.

“There is real danger that in their reaction to extremist violence, opinion-leaders and decision-makers will lose their grasp of the deeper principles that underpin the system for global security which States built 70 years ago to ward off the horror of war,” the UN Human Rights Chief said.

“The fight against terror is a struggle to uphold the values of democracy and human rights – not undermine them,” Zeid added. “Counter-terrorist operations that are non-specific, disproportionate, brutal and inadequately supervised violate the very norms that we seek to defend. They also risk handing the terrorists a propaganda tool – thus making our societies neither free nor safe,” he said.

The use of torture, neglect of due process and collective punishment do not make the world any safer, he said, quoting former US President George W. Bush’s statement that Guantanamo became “a propaganda tool for our enemies.”

The wide-ranging speech to the 47-member UN Human Rights Council spanned numerous major issues affecting countries and individuals all across the world, including many forms of discrimination, as well as racial and religious hatred.

“I am appalled by the rising tide of attacks around the world that target people on account of their religious beliefs,” he said. “…We continue to observe horrific acts of racial and religious hatred, including in many countries in Western Europe and North America, as well as evidence of unfair policing, daily insults and exclusion…. It should be obvious that Islamophobia, anti-Semitism, and attacks that single out Christians or other groups because of their beliefs are identical manifestations of the same poisonous intolerance.”

The High Commissioner also addressed the failure to give enough attention to economic and social rights, as well as related issues such as poverty, migration, climate change, and the root causes of the Ebola epidemic.

The tentacles of the extremist Takfiri movement reach into not just Iraq and Syria, he noted, but also Nigeria, Yemen, Libya, Somalia and beyond. The High Commissioner said he was deeply concerned at measures that restrict freedom of expression and democratic space in numerous countries including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Hungary, Myanmar, the Occupied Palestinian Territory, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, Thailand, Turkey, Venezuela, and Viet Nam.

“When powerful leaders feel threatened by a tweet, a blog, or a high-school student’s speech, this speaks of profound underlying weakness,” he said. “And when writers are abducted, jailed, whipped, or put to death; when journalists are assaulted, subjected to sexual violence, tortured and killed; when peaceful protestors are gunned down by thugs; when human rights lawyers, human rights defenders and land activists are arrested and jailed on spurious charges of sedition; when newspapers are attacked or shut down – such cases attack and undermine the foundations of stable governance.”

Zeid also expressed regret at the renewed use of the death penalty in Indonesia, Jordan, and Pakistan, and the continuing extensive use of the death penalty in China, Iraq, Iran and the United States. He also highlighted the human rights situation in the Central African Republic, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Mexico, Sri Lanka, South Sudan, Sudan, and Ukraine, as well as Australia’s approach to irregular migrants and asylum seekers. The High Commissioner commended Colombia and Tunisia for important advances in human rights.

“It is the people who sustain government, create prosperity, heal and educate others and pay for governmental and other services with their labour. It is their struggles that have created and sustain States. Governments exist to serve the people – not the other way round,” Zeid said.