Mobile Phones As Surveillance Tools: Implementing and Evaluating a Large-Scale Intersectoral Surveillance System for Rabies in Tanzania

PLoS Medicine
http://www.plosmedicine.org/
(Accessed 16 April 2016)

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Health in Action
Mobile Phones As Surveillance Tools: Implementing and Evaluating a Large-Scale Intersectoral Surveillance System for Rabies in Tanzania
Zacharia Mtema, Joel Changalucha, Sarah Cleaveland, Martin Elias, Heather M. Ferguson, Jo E. B. Halliday, Daniel T. Haydon, Gurdeep Jaswant, Rudovick Kazwala, Gerry F. Killeen, Tiziana Lembo, Kennedy Lushasi, Alpha D. Malishee, Rebecca Mancy, Matthew Maziku, Eberhard M. Mbunda, Geofrey J. M. Mchau, Roderick Murray-Smith, Kristyna Rysava, Khadija Said, Maganga Sambo, Elizabeth Shayo, Lwitiko Sikana, Sunny E Townsend, Honorathy Urassa, Katie Hampson
| published 12 Apr 2016 | PLOS Medicine
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002002
Summary Points
:: Surveillance is critical to manage preventative health services and control infectious diseases. Integrated surveillance involving public health, veterinary, and environmental sectors is urgently needed to effectively manage zoonoses and vector-borne diseases. However, most surveillance in low-income countries is paper-based, provides negligible timely feedback, is poorly incentivised, and results in delays, limited reporting, inaccurate data, and costly processing.
:: The potential of mobile technologies for improving health system surveillance has been demonstrated through small-scale pilots, but large-scale evaluations under programmatic implementation remain rare.
:: An intersectoral mobile-phone–based system was developed and implemented for rabies surveillance across southern Tanzania. Since 2011, the system has facilitated near real-time reporting of animal bites and human and animal vaccine use (almost 30,000 reports) by over 300 frontline health and veterinary workers across a catchment area of 150,000 km2 with >10 million inhabitants, improving data quality, timeliness, and completeness while reducing costs.
:: The surveillance system infrastructure is a platform that can be further developed to improve services and deliver health interventions; for example, generating automated personalized text messages (SMS) to alert patients to their vaccination schedules improved their compliance with regimens. Other interventions targeting patients and health workers can now be implemented easily.
:: The system has become an integrated, popular, and valuable tool across sectors, used routinely throughout southern Tanzania to evaluate the impacts of rabies control and prevention activities and to improve their management, directly informed by the experiences of frontline users.
We discuss challenges encountered during development and deployment, how we overcame these, and our recommendations for scaling up mobile-phone–based health (mHealth) interventions in low-income countries.

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Policy Forum
Building Learning Health Systems to Accelerate Research and Improve Outcomes of Clinical Care in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Mike English, Grace Irimu, Ambrose Agweyu, David Gathara, Jacquie Oliwa, Philip Ayieko, Fred Were, Chris Paton, Sean Tunis, Christopher B. Forrest
| published 12 Apr 2016 | PLOS Medicine
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001991
Summary Points
:: Achieving universal coverage that supports high-quality care will require that health systems are designed to integrate the delivery of health services with the generation of new knowledge about the effectiveness of these services.
:: System strengthening and research will need to be better integrated to achieve this in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) so that changes in coverage, quality, and impact are measured, costs are contained, and health systems are responsive to users’ needs and concerns.
:: In high-income countries, learning health systems (LHS) are emerging to meet similar needs. The LHS vision aspires to engage policy makers, researchers, service providers, and patients in learning that uses and strengthens routinely collected data to conduct pragmatic, contextually appropriate research, promote rapid adoption of findings to improve quality and outcomes, and promote continuous learning.
:: Although there are significant challenges, we should begin to develop LHS in LMIC for their immediate and longer term benefits and to avoid having to retrofit health systems with the capability to promote learning at a later date and even greater cost.
:: A global coalition on how to build LHS effectively that shares accumulating learning could enable such a strategy.

Zika Virus Outbreak in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Clinical Characterization, Epidemiological and Virological Aspects

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
http://www.plosntds.org/
(Accessed 16 April 2016)

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Research Article
Zika Virus Outbreak in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Clinical Characterization, Epidemiological and Virological Aspects
Patrícia Brasil, Guilherme Amaral Calvet, André Machado Siqueira, Mayumi Wakimoto, Patrícia Carvalho de Sequeira, Aline Nobre, Marcel de Souza Borges Quintana, Marco Cesar Lima de Mendonça, Otilia Lupi, Rogerio Valls de Souza, Carolina Romero, Heruza Zogbi, Clarisse da Silveira Bressan, Simone Sampaio Alves, Ricardo Lourenço-de-Oliveira, Rita Maria Ribeiro Nogueira, Marilia Sá Carvalho, Ana Maria Bispo de Filippis, Thomas Jaenisch
| published 12 Apr 2016 | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004636

Health Service Utilization among Syrian Refugees with Chronic Health Conditions in Jordan

PLoS One
http://www.plosone.org/
[Accessed 16 April 2016]

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Research Article
Health Service Utilization among Syrian Refugees with Chronic Health Conditions in Jordan
Shannon Doocy, Emily Lyles, Laila Akhu-Zaheya, Arwa Oweis, Nada Al Ward, Ann Burton
Research Article | published 13 Apr 2016 | PLOS ONE
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0150088
Abstract
Introduction
The influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan presents an immense burden to the Jordanian health system, particularly in treating chronic health conditions. This study was undertaken to assess utilization of health services for chronic health conditions among Syrian refugees in non-camp settings.
Methods
A survey of Syrian refugees in Jordan was undertaken in June 2014 to characterize health seeking behaviors and issues related to accessing care for hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and arthritis. A cluster design with probability proportional to size sampling was used to attain a nationally representative sample of 1550 non-camp Syrian refugee households.
Results
Of 1363 cases with a chronic health condition diagnosis, 84.7% had received care in Jordan. Public facilities faced a heavy burden serving over half (53.9%) of care-seekers; the remainder received care in the private (29.6%) and NGO/charity (16.6%) sectors. Individuals with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in the central region of Jordan and with arthritis had the lowest rates of care-seeking when compared to other regions and conditions. Overall, 31.6% of care-seekers had an out-of-pocket payment for the most recent care-seeking event which averaged 18.8 USD (median = 0 USD), excluding cost of medications.
Discussion
Forced displacement presents major challenges to those with NCDs, which have the potential to seriously impact both the quality of life and life expectancy amongst refugees. NCD patterns among Syrian refugees indicate the importance of continuing support to public sector services in Jordan to adequately meet expanding needs and ensure appropriate prevention and control of priority NCDs.

Science – 15 April 2016

Science
15 April 2016 Vol 352, Issue 6283
http://www.sciencemag.org/current.dtl
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Policy Forum
Opportunities for advances in climate change economics
By M. Burke, M. Craxton, C. D. Kolstad, C. Onda, H. Allcott, E. Baker, L. Barrage, R. Carson, K. Gillingham, J. Graff-Zivin, M. Greenstone, S. Hallegatte, W. M. Hanemann, G. Heal, S. Hsiang, B. Jones, D. L. Kelly, R. Kopp, M. Kotchen, R. Mendelsohn, K. Meng, G. Metcalf, J. Moreno-Cruz, R. Pindyck, S. Rose, I. Rudik, J. Stock, R. S. J. Tol
Science15 Apr 2016 : 292-293
Target carbon’s costs, policy designs, and developing countries
Summary
There have been dramatic advances in understanding the physical science of climate change, facilitated by substantial and reliable research support. The social value of these advances depends on understanding their implications for society, an arena where research support has been more modest and research progress slower. Some advances have been made in understanding and formalizing climate-economy linkages, but knowledge gaps remain [e.g., as discussed in (1, 2)]. We outline three areas where we believe research progress on climate economics is both sorely needed, in light of policy relevance, and possible within the next few years given appropriate funding: (i) refining the social cost of carbon (SCC), (ii) improving understanding of the consequences of particular policies, and (iii) better understanding of the economic impacts and policy choices in developing economies.
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Reports
Zika virus in the Americas: Early epidemiological and genetic findings
By Nuno Rodrigues Faria, Raimunda do Socorro da Silva Azevedo, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Renato Souza, Mariana Sequetin Cunha, Sarah C. Hill, Julien Thézé, Michael B. Bonsall, Thomas A. Bowden, Ilona Rissanen, Iray Maria Rocco, Juliana Silva Nogueira, Adriana Yurika Maeda, Fernanda Giseli da Silva Vasami, Fernando Luiz de Lima Macedo, Akemi Suzuki, Sueli Guerreiro Rodrigues, Ana Cecilia Ribeiro Cruz, Bruno Tardeli Nunes, Daniele Barbosa de Almeida Medeiros, Daniela Sueli Guerreiro Rodrigues, Alice Louize Nunes Queiroz, Eliana Vieira Pinto da Silva, Daniele Freitas Henriques, Elisabeth Salbe Travassos da Rosa, Consuelo Silva de Oliveira, Livia Caricio Martins, Helena Baldez Vasconcelos, Livia Medeiros Neves Casseb, Darlene de Brito Simith, Jane P. Messina, Leandro Abade, José Lourenço, Luiz Carlos Junior Alcantara, Maricélia Maia de Lima, Marta Giovanetti, Simon I. Hay, Rodrigo Santos de Oliveira, Poliana da Silva Lemos, Layanna Freitas de Oliveira, Clayton Pereira Silva de Lima, Sandro Patroca da Silva, Janaina Mota de Vasconcelos, Luciano Franco, Jedson Ferreira Cardoso, João Lídio da Silva Gonçalves Vianez-Júnior, Daiana Mir, Gonzalo Bello, Edson Delatorre, Kamran Khan, Marisa Creatore, Giovanini Evelim Coelho, Wanderson Kleber de Oliveira, Robert Tesh, Oliver G. Pybus, Marcio R. T. Nunes, Pedro F. C. Vasconcelos
Science15 Apr 2016 : 345-349
Zika virus genomes from Brazil
The Zika virus outbreak is a major cause for concern in Brazil, where it has been linked with increased reports of otherwise rare birth defects and neuropathology. In a phylogenetic analysis, Faria et al. infer a single introduction of Zika to the Americas and estimated the introduction date to be about May to December 2013—some 12 months earlier than the virus was reported. This timing correlates with major events in the Brazilian cultural calendar associated with increased traveler numbers from areas where Zika virus has been circulating. A correlation was also observed between incidences of microcephaly and week 17 of pregnancy.
Abstract
Brazil has experienced an unprecedented epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), with ~30,000 cases reported to date. ZIKV was first detected in Brazil in May 2015, and cases of microcephaly potentially associated with ZIKV infection were identified in November 2015. We performed next-generation sequencing to generate seven Brazilian ZIKV genomes sampled from four self-limited cases, one blood donor, one fatal adult case, and one newborn with microcephaly and congenital malformations. Results of phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses show a single introduction of ZIKV into the Americas, which we estimated to have occurred between May and December 2013, more than 12 months before the detection of ZIKV in Brazil. The estimated date of origin coincides with an increase in air passengers to Brazil from ZIKV-endemic areas, as well as with reported outbreaks in the Pacific Islands. ZIKV genomes from Brazil are phylogenetically interspersed with those from other South American and Caribbean countries. Mapping mutations onto existing structural models revealed the context of viral amino acid changes present in the outbreak lineage; however, no shared amino acid changes were found among the three currently available virus genomes from microcephaly cases. Municipality-level incidence data indicate that reports of suspected microcephaly in Brazil best correlate with ZIKV incidence around week 17 of pregnancy, although this correlation does not demonstrate causation. Our genetic description and analysis of ZIKV isolates in Brazil provide a baseline for future studies of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of this emerging virus in the Americas.

The Sentinel

Human Rights Action :: Humanitarian Response :: Health ::
Holistic Development :: Sustainable Resilience
__________________________________________________
Week ending 9 April 2016

This weekly digest is intended to aggregate and distill key content from a broad spectrum of practice domains and organization types including key agencies/IGOs, NGOs, governments, academic and research institutions, consortia and collaborations, foundations, and commercial organizations. We also monitor a spectrum of peer-reviewed journals and general media channels. The Sentinel’s geographic scope is global/regional but selected country-level content is included. We recognize that this spectrum/scope yields an indicative and not an exhaustive product. Comments and suggestions should be directed to:

David R. Curry
Editor &
Founding Managing Director
GE2P2 – Center for Governance, Evidence, Ethics, Policy, Practice
david.r.curry@ge2p2center.net

pdf version: The Sentinel_ week ending 9 April 2016

blog edition: comprised of the 35+ entries  posted below.

American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene April 2016

American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
April 2016; 94 (4)
http://www.ajtmh.org/content/current

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Perspective Piece
An Improved Ward Architecture for Treatment of Patients with Ebola Virus Disease in Liberia
Jianping You and Qing Mao
Am J Trop Med Hyg 2016 94:701-703; Published online January 11, 2016, doi:10.4269/ajtmh.15-0209
Abstract
During the recent outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in west Africa, we established an Ebola treatment center (ETC) with improved ward architecture. The ETC was built with movable prefabricated boards according to infectious disease unit standard requirements. The clinical staff ensured their own security while providing patients with effective treatment. Of the 180 admissions to the ETC, 10 cases were confirmed with EVD of which six patients survived. None of the clinical staff was infected. We hope that our experience will enable others to avoid unnecessary risks while delivering EVD care.

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Infectious Diseases in Sub-Saharan Immigrants to Spain
Núria Serre Delcor, Begoña Treviño Maruri, Antoni Soriano Arandes, Isabel Claveria Guiu, Hakima Ouaarab Essadik, Mateu Espasa Soley, Israel Molina Romero, and Carlos Ascaso
Am J Trop Med Hyg 2016 94:750-756; Published online February 15, 2016, doi:10.4269/ajtmh.15-0583
Abstract
Immigrants may be carriers of infectious diseases because of the prevalence of these diseases in their country of origin, exposure during migration, or conditions during resettlement, with this prevalence being particularly high in sub-Saharan Africans. We performed a retrospective review of 180 sub-Saharan immigrants screened for infectious diseases at an International Health Center from January 2009 to December 2012. At least one pathogenic infectious disease was diagnosed in 72.8% patients: 60.6% latent tuberculosis infection, 36.8% intestinal parasites (intestinal protozoa or helminths), 28.1% helminths, 14.8% hepatitis B surface antigen positive, 1.2% anti-hepatitis C virus positive, 1.2% human immunodeficiency virus–positive, and 1.2% malaria. Coinfections were present in 28.4%. There was significant association between eosinophilia (absolute count or percentage) or hyper-IgE and the presence of helminths (P < 0.001). Relative eosinophilia and hyper-IgE were better indicators of helminth infection than absolute eosinophilia, particularly for schistosomiasis and strongyloidiasis. We found a high prevalence of infectious diseases in sub-Saharan immigrants, which could lead to severe health problems (in the absence of prompt treatment), representing a high cost to the public health system and possible transmission in the host country. Accurate screening and tailored protocols for infectious diseases are recommended in sub-Saharan immigrants.

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Retrospective Analysis of the 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia
Katherine E. Atkins, Abhishek Pandey, Natasha S. Wenzel, Laura Skrip, Dan Yamin, Tolbert G. Nyenswah, Mosoka Fallah, Luke Bawo, Jan Medlock, Frederick L. Altice, Jeffrey Townsend,
Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah, and Alison P. Galvani
Am J Trop Med Hyg 2016 94:833-839; Published online February 29, 2016, doi:10.4269/ajtmh.15-0328
Abstract
The 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40–80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence.

BMC Health Services Research (Accessed 9 April 2016)

BMC Health Services Research
http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmchealthservres/content
(Accessed 9 April 2016)

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Research article
Drivers of improved health sector performance in Rwanda: a qualitative view from within
Rwanda has achieved great improvements in several key health indicators, including maternal mortality and other health outcomes. This raises the question: what has made this possible, and what makes Rwanda so …
Felix Sayinzoga and Leon Bijlmakers
BMC Health Services Research 2016 16:123
Published on: 8 April 2016

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Research article
Effectiveness, cost effectiveness, acceptability and implementation barriers/enablers of chronic kidney disease management programs for Indigenous people in Australia, New Zealand and Canada: a systematic review of mixed evidence
Indigenous peoples in Australia, New Zealand and Canada carry a greater burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) than the general populations in each country, and this burden is predicted to increase.
Rachel Reilly, Katharine Evans, Judith Gomersall, Gillian Gorham, Micah D. J. Peters, Steven Warren, Rebekah O’Shea, Alan Cass and Alex Brown
BMC Health Services Research 2016 16:119
Published on: 6 April 2016

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Abstracts
Researching Complex Interventions in Health: The State of the Art
KEYNOTE PRESENTATIONS
Peter Craig, Ingalill Rahm-Hallberg, Nicky Britten, Gunilla Borglin, Gabriele Meyer, Sascha Köpke, Jane Noyes, Jackie Chandler, Sara Levati, Anne Sales, Lehana Thabane, Lora Giangregorio, Nancy Feeley, Sylvie Cossette, Rod Taylor, Jacqueline Hill…
BMC Health Services Research 2016 16(Suppl 1):101
Published on: 4 April 2016

BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth (Accessed 9 April 2016)

BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcpregnancychildbirth/content
(Accessed 9 April 2016)

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Research article
Are all immigrant mothers really at risk of low birth weight and perinatal mortality? The crucial role of socio-economic status
Judith Racape, Claudia Schoenborn, Mouctar Sow, Sophie Alexander and Myriam De Spiegelaere
Published on: 8 April 2016

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Research article
Birth preparedness, complication readiness and other determinants of place of delivery among mothers in Goba District, Bale Zone, South East Ethiopia
Semere Sileshi Belda and Mulugeta Betre Gebremariam
Published on: 6 April 2016

Adherence to and acceptability of home fortification with vitamins and minerals in children aged 6 to 23 months: a systematic review

BMC Public Health
http://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles
(Accessed 9 April 2016)

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Research article
Adherence to and acceptability of home fortification with vitamins and minerals in children aged 6 to 23 months: a systematic review
Vitamin and mineral deficiencies affect more than two million people worldwide. In 2011, based on recent scientific evidence and the low effectiveness of current strategies, the World Health Organization recommends…
Samara Fernandes de Barros and Marly Augusto Cardoso
BMC Public Health 2016 16:299
Published on: 7 April 2016

A quantitative assessment of termination of sexual violence-related pregnancies in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo

Conflict and Health
http://www.conflictandhealth.com/
[Accessed 9 April 2016]

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Research
A quantitative assessment of termination of sexual violence-related pregnancies in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo
Shada A. Rouhani, Jennifer Scott, Gillian Burkhardt, Monica A. Onyango, Sadia Haider, Ashley Greiner, Katherine Albutt, Michael VanRooyen and Susan A. Bartels
Published on: 6 April 2016

International Journal of Infectious Diseases – April 2016, Volume 45, In Progress

International Journal of Infectious Diseases
April 2016 Volume 45, In Progress
http://www.ijidonline.com/current

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Editorial
Zika virus outbreak and the case for building effective and sustainable rapid diagnostics laboratory capacity globally
Alimuddin Zumla, Ian Goodfellow, Francis Kasolo, Francine Ntoumi, Philippe Buchy, Matthew Bates, Esam I Azhar, Matthew Cotten, Eskild Petersen
p92–94
Published online: March 4 2016
Preview
New and re-emerging pathogens with epidemic potential have threatened global health security for the past century.1 As with the recent Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic, the Zika Virus (ZIKV) outbreak has yet again surprised and overwhelmed the international health community with an unexpected event for which it might have been better prepared.

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Editorial
Engaging high and low burden countries in the “TB end game”
B.J. Marais, A.C. Outhred, A. Zumla
p100–102
Published online: March 19 2016
Preview
Tuberculosis (TB) is now the single biggest infectious disease killer in the world, surpassing malaria and HIV/AIDS. In 2014, there were an estimated 9.6 million incident TB cases and 1.5 million deaths.1 It is not widely appreciated that TB is also a major cause of disease and death in young children.2,3 New estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO) are that 1 million children developed TB during 2014.1 This is disconcerting because children have poor access to TB services in most resource-limited settings and paediatric cases provide an accurate reflection of uncontrolled TB transmission within communities.

 

Journal of Development Economics – Volume 120, Pages 1-224 (May 2016)

Journal of Development Economics
Volume 120, Pages 1-224 (May 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03043878/120

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Regular Articles
The value of children: Inter-generational support, fertility, and human capital
Original Research Article
Pages 1-16
Jaqueline Oliveira
Abstract
This paper offers robust empirical evidence of a Darwinian pro-natalist mechanism: parents can improve their old-age support with an additional child. Using the incidence of first-born twins as an instrument for fertility outcomes, I find that Chinese senior parents with more children receive more financial transfers and are more likely to co-reside with an adult child. They are also less likely to work past retirement age. The estimated effects are large, despite the evidence that adult children from larger families are less educated and earn significantly less. Interestingly, the effect of an increase in the number of children on old-age support does not depend on the child’s gender.

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Impact of Village Savings and Loan Associations: Evidence from a cluster randomized trial
Original Research Article
Pages 70-85
Christopher Ksoll, Helene Bie Lilleør, Jonas Helth Lønborg, Ole Dahl Rasmussen
Abstract
The vast majority of the world’s poor live in rural areas of developing countries with little access to financial services. Setting up Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) has become an increasingly widespread intervention aimed at improving local financial intermediation. Using a cluster randomized trial we investigate the impact of VSLAs in Northern Malawi over a two year period. We find evidence of positive and significant intention-to-treat effects on several outcomes, including the number of meals consumed per day, household expenditure as measured by the USAID Poverty Assessment Tool, and the number of rooms in the dwelling. This effect is linked to an increase in savings and credit obtained through the VSLAs, which has increased agricultural investments and income from small businesses.

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Airtime transfers and mobile communications: Evidence in the aftermath of natural disasters
Original Research Article
Pages 157-181
Joshua E. Blumenstock, Nathan Eagle, Marcel Fafchamps
Abstract
We provide empirical evidence that Rwandans use the mobile phone network to transfer airtime to those affected by unexpected shocks. Using an extensive dataset on mobile phone activity in Rwanda and exploiting the quasi-random timing and location of natural disasters, we show that individuals make transfers and calls to people affected by disasters. The magnitude of these transfers is small in absolute terms, but statistically significant; in response to the Lake Kivu earthquake of 2008, we estimate that roughly US$84 in airtime was transferred to individuals in the affected region, that 70% of these transfers were immediately used to make outgoing calls, and that US$16,959 was spent calling those near the epicenter. Unlike other forms of interpersonal transfers, mobile airtime is sent over large geographic distances and in response to covariate shocks. Transfers are more likely to be sent to wealthy individuals, and are sent predominantly between pairs of individuals with a strong history of reciprocal favor exchange.

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Witchcraft beliefs and the erosion of social capital: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond
Original Research Article
Pages 182-208
Boris Gershman
Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between witchcraft beliefs, a deep-rooted cultural phenomenon, and various elements of social capital. Using novel survey data from nineteen countries in Sub-Saharan Africa we establish a robust negative association between the prevalence of witchcraft beliefs and multiple measures of trust which holds after accounting for country fixed effects and potential confounding factors at the individual, regional, and ethnic-group levels. This finding extends to other metrics of social capital, namely charitable giving and participation in religious group activities. Such coexistence of witchcraft beliefs and antisocial attitudes stands in stark contrast to a well-explored alternative cultural equilibrium characterized by religious prosociality. Evidence from societies beyond Africa shows that in preindustrial communities where witchcraft is believed to be an important cause of illness, mistrust and other antisocial traits are inculcated since childhood. Furthermore, second-generation immigrants in Europe originating from countries with widespread witchcraft beliefs are generally less trusting.

The Lancet – Apr 09, 2016

The Lancet
Apr 09, 2016 Volume 387 Number 10027 p1483-1590
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/current

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Articles
Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
Published Online: 06 April 2016
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8
Open access funded by Wellcome Trust
Summary
Background
One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.
Methods
We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.
Findings
We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.
Interpretation
Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
Funding
Wellcome Trust.

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Articles
Guillain-Barré Syndrome outbreak associated with Zika virus infection in French Polynesia: a case-control study
Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau, Alexandre Blake, Sandrine Mons, Stéphane Lastère, Claudine Roche, Jessica Vanhomwegen, Timothée Dub, Laure Baudouin, Anita Teissier, Philippe Larre, Anne-Laure Vial, Christophe Decam, Valérie Choumet, Susan K Halstead, Hugh J Willison, Lucile Musset, Jean-Claude Manuguerra, Philippe Despres, Emmanuel Fournier, Henri-Pierre Mallet, Didier Musso, Arnaud Fontanet, Jean Neil, Frédéric GhawchéPublished Online: 29 February 2016
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00562-6
Summary
Background
Between October, 2013, and April, 2014, French Polynesia experienced the largest Zika virus outbreak ever described at that time. During the same period, an increase in Guillain-Barré syndrome was reported, suggesting a possible association between Zika virus and Guillain-Barré syndrome. We aimed to assess the role of Zika virus and dengue virus infection in developing Guillain-Barré syndrome.
Methods
In this case-control study, cases were patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome diagnosed at the Centre Hospitalier de Polynésie Française (Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia) during the outbreak period. Controls were age-matched, sex-matched, and residence-matched patients who presented at the hospital with a non-febrile illness (control group 1; n=98) and age-matched patients with acute Zika virus disease and no neurological symptoms (control group 2; n=70). Virological investigations included RT-PCR for Zika virus, and both microsphere immunofluorescent and seroneutralisation assays for Zika virus and dengue virus. Anti-glycolipid reactivity was studied in patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome using both ELISA and combinatorial microarrays.
Findings
42 patients were diagnosed with Guillain-Barré syndrome during the study period. 41 (98%) patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome had anti-Zika virus IgM or IgG, and all (100%) had neutralising antibodies against Zika virus compared with 54 (56%) of 98 in control group 1 (p<0·0001). 39 (93%) patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome had Zika virus IgM and 37 (88%) had experienced a transient illness in a median of 6 days (IQR 4–10) before the onset of neurological symptoms, suggesting recent Zika virus infection. Patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome had electrophysiological findings compatible with acute motor axonal neuropathy (AMAN) type, and had rapid evolution of disease (median duration of the installation and plateau phases was 6 [IQR 4–9] and 4 days [3–10], respectively). 12 (29%) patients required respiratory assistance. No patients died. Anti-glycolipid antibody activity was found in 13 (31%) patients, and notably against GA1 in eight (19%) patients, by ELISA and 19 (46%) of 41 by glycoarray at admission. The typical AMAN-associated anti-ganglioside antibodies were rarely present. Past dengue virus history did not differ significantly between patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome and those in the two control groups (95%, 89%, and 83%, respectively).
Interpretation
This is the first study providing evidence for Zika virus infection causing Guillain-Barré syndrome. Because Zika virus is spreading rapidly across the Americas, at risk countries need to prepare for adequate intensive care beds capacity to manage patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome.
Funding
Labex Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases, EU 7th framework program PREDEMICS. and Wellcome Trust.

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Review
Increasing value and reducing waste in biomedical research: who’s listening?
David Moher, Paul Glasziou, Iain Chalmers, Mona Nasser, Patrick M M Bossuyt, Daniël A Korevaar, Ian D Graham, Philippe Ravaud, Isabelle Boutron
Summary
The biomedical research complex has been estimated to consume almost a quarter of a trillion US dollars every year. Unfortunately, evidence suggests that a high proportion of this sum is avoidably wasted. In 2014, The Lancet published a series of five reviews showing how dividends from the investment in research might be increased from the relevance and priorities of the questions being asked, to how the research is designed, conducted, and reported. 17 recommendations were addressed to five main stakeholders—funders, regulators, journals, academic institutions, and researchers. This Review provides some initial observations on the possible effects of the Series, which seems to have provoked several important discussions and is on the agendas of several key players. Some examples of individual initiatives show ways to reduce waste and increase value in biomedical research. This momentum will probably move strongly across stakeholder groups, if collaborative relationships evolve between key players; further important work is needed to increase research value. A forthcoming meeting in Edinburgh, UK, will provide an initial forum within which to foster the collaboration needed.

Commentary – Catalyzing a Reproductive Health and Social Justice Movement

Maternal and Child Health Journal
Volume 20, Issue 4, April 2016
http://link.springer.com/journal/10995/20/4/page/1

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Commentary
Catalyzing a Reproductive Health and Social Justice Movement
Sarah Verbiest, Christina Kiko Malin, Mario Drummonds…
Abstract
Objectives The maternal and child health (MCH) community, partnering with women and their families, has the potential to play a critical role in advancing a new multi-sector social movement focused on creating a women’s reproductive and economic justice agenda. Since the turn of the twenty-first century, the MCH field has been planting seeds for change. The time has come for this work to bear fruit as many states are facing stagnant or slow progress in reducing infant mortality, increasing maternal death rates, and growing health inequities. Methods This paper synthesizes three current, interrelated approaches to addressing MCH challenges—life course theory, preconception health, and social justice/reproductive equity. Conclusion Based on these core constructs, the authors offer four directions for advancing efforts to improve MCH outcomes. The first is to ensure access to quality health care for all. The second is to facilitate change through critical conversations about challenging issues such as poverty, racism, sexism, and immigration; the relevance of evidence-based practice in disenfranchised communities; and how we might be perpetuating inequities in our institutions. The third is to develop collaborative spaces in which leaders across diverse sectors can see their roles in creating equitable neighborhood conditions that ensure optimal reproductive choices and outcomes for women and their families. Last, the authors suggest that leaders engage the MCH workforce and its consumers in dialogue and action about local and national policies that address the social determinants of health and how these policies influence reproductive and early childhood outcomes.

What Can We Expect from Value-Based Funding of Medicines? A Retrospective Study

PharmacoEconomics
Volume 34, Issue 4, April 2016
http://link.springer.com/journal/40273/34/4/page/1

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Original Research Article
What Can We Expect from Value-Based Funding of Medicines? A Retrospective Study
Anthony Harris, Jing Jing Li, Karen Yong
Abstract
Objective
Deciding on public funding for pharmaceuticals on the basis of value for money is now widespread. We suggest that evidence-based assessment of value has restricted the availability of medicines in Australia in a way that reflects the relative bargaining power of government and the pharmaceutical industry. We propose a simple informal game-theoretic model of bargaining between the funding agency and industry and test its predictions using a logistic multiple regression model of past funding decisions made by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee in Australia.
Method
The model estimates the probability of a drug being recommended for subsidy as a function of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), as well as other drug and market characteristics. Data are major submissions or resubmissions from 1993 to 2009 where there was a claim of superiority and evidence of a difference in quality of life. Independent variables measure the incremental cost per QALY, the cost to the public budget, the strength and quality of the clinical and economic evidence, need as measured by severity of illness and the availability of alternative treatments, whether or not a resubmission, and newspaper reports as a measure of public pressure. We report the odds ratio for each variable and calculate the ratio of the marginal effect of each variable to the marginal effect of the cost per QALY as a measure of the revealed willingness to pay for each of the variables that influence the decision.
Results
The results are consistent with a bargaining model where a 10,000 Australian dollar ($A) fall in value (increase in cost per QALY) reduces the average probability of public funding from 37 to 33 % (95 % CI 34–32). If the condition is life threatening or the drug has no active comparator, then the odds of a positive recommendation are 3.18 (95 % CI 1.00–10.11) and 2.14 (95 % CI 0.95–4.83) greater, equivalent to a $A33,000 and a $A21,000 increase in value (fall in cost per QALY). If both conditions are met, the odds are increased by 4.41 (95 % CI 1.28–15.24) times, equivalent to an increase in value of $A46,000. Funding is more likely as time elapses and price falls, but we did not find clear evidence that public or corporate pressure influences decisions.
Conclusion
Evidence from Australia suggests that the determinants of public funding and pricing decisions for medicines reflect the relative bargaining power of government and drug companies. Value for money depends on the quality of evidence, timing, patient need, perceived benefit and opportunity cost; these factors reflect the potential gains from striking a bargain and the risk of loss from not doing so

Editorial – Neglected Tropical Diseases in the Anthropocene: The Cases of Zika, Ebola, and Other Infections

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
http://www.plosntds.org/
(Accessed 9 April 2016)

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Editorial
Neglected Tropical Diseases in the Anthropocene: The Cases of Zika, Ebola, and Other Infections
Peter J. Hotez
| published 08 Apr 2016 | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004648

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Effects of Mother’s Illness and Breastfeeding on Risk of Ebola Virus Disease in a Cohort of Very Young Children
Hilary Bower, Sembia Johnson, Mohamed S. Bangura, Alie Joshua Kamara, Osman Kamara, Saidu H. Mansaray, Daniel Sesay, Cecilia Turay, Francesco Checchi, Judith R. Glynn
Research Article | published 08 Apr 2016 | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases