Nature
Volume 534 Number 7609 pp589-732 30 June 2016
http://www.nature.com/nature/current_issue.html

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Comment
Policy: Social-progress panel seeks public comment
Marc Fleurbaey and colleagues explain why and how 300 scholars in the social sciences and humanities are collaborating to synthesize knowledge for policymakers.
…That vision is the mission of a new panel convened last year, the International Panel on Social Progress (IPSP). It comprises more than 300 social-science and humanities scholars coordinated by the Fondation Maison des Sciences de l’Homme in Paris and by Princeton University in New Jersey. The IPSP is preparing a report on directions that could be taken in the twenty-first century to create better societies. We are members of the panel’s steering committee, and two of us (R.K. and H.N.) are co-chairs of its scientific council. In the next few months, the IPSP will release the first draft of its report.

We call on researchers, policymakers, think tanks, companies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and citizens to provide us with feedback during the comment period. From August to December 2016, interested parties will be able to weigh in on the panel website, http://www.ipsp.org, which will host a comment platform, discussion forums and surveys. Informed by these views, we hope that the final report will reflect an open and broad international debate on ‘mobilizing utopias’

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Comment
Make climate-change assessments more relevant
Stéphane Hallegatte, Katharine J. Mach and colleagues urge researchers to gear their studies, and the way they present their results, to the needs of policymakers.

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Perspectives
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
Joeri Rogelj, Michel den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Taryn Fransen, Hanna Fekete
+ et al.
The objective of the Paris climate agreement is to limit global-average temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to further pursue limiting it to 1.5 degrees Celsius; here, the adequacy of the national plans submitted in preparation for this agreement is assessed, and it is concluded that substantial enhancement or over-delivery on these plans is required to have a reasonable chance of achieving the Paris climate objective.

New England Journal of Medicine
June 30, 2016 Vol. 374 No. 26
http://www.nejm.org/toc/nejm/medical-journal

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Perspective
Saving the World’s Women from Cervical Cancer [Free full text]
V. Tsu and J. Jerónimo

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Original Articles
Seven-Year Efficacy of RTS,S/AS01 Malaria Vaccine among Young African Children
A. Olotu and Others
2519-2529
Free Full Text
Abstract
Background
The candidate malaria vaccine RTS,S/AS01 is being evaluated in order to inform a decision regarding its inclusion in routine vaccination schedules.
Full Text of Background…
Methods
We conducted 7 years of follow-up in children who had been randomly assigned, at 5 to 17 months of age, to receive three doses of either the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine or a rabies (control) vaccine. The end point was clinical malaria (temperature of ≥37.5°C and infection with Plasmodium falciparum of >2500 parasites per cubic millimeter). In an analysis that was not prespecified, the malaria exposure of each child was estimated with the use of information on the prevalence of malaria among residents within a 1-km radius of the child’s home. Vaccine efficacy was defined as 1 minus the hazard ratio or the incidence-rate ratio, multiplied by 100, in the RTS,S/AS01 group versus the control group.
Full Text of Methods…
Results
Over 7 years of follow-up, we identified 1002 episodes of clinical malaria among 223 children randomly assigned to the RTS,S/AS01 group and 992 episodes among 224 children randomly assigned to the control group. The vaccine efficacy, as assessed by negative binomial regression, was 4.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], −17.0 to 21.9; P=0.66) in the intention-to-treat analysis and 7.0% (95% CI, −14.5 to 24.6; P=0.52) in the per-protocol analysis. Vaccine efficacy waned over time (P=0.006 for the interaction between vaccination and time), including negative efficacy during the fifth year among children with higher-than-average exposure to malaria parasites (intention-to-treat analysis: −43.5%; 95% CI, −100.3 to −2.8 [P=0.03]; per-protocol analysis: −56.8%; 95% CI, −118.7 to −12.3 [P=0.008]).
Full Text of Results…
Conclusions
A three-dose vaccination with RTS,S/AS01 was initially protective against clinical malaria, but this result was offset by rebound in later years in areas with higher-than-average exposure to malaria parasites. (Funded by the PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00872963.)

PLOS Currents: Disasters
http://currents.plos.org/disasters/
[Accessed 2 July 2016]

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Research Article
How Bad Is It? Usefulness of the “7eed Model” for Scoring Severity and Level of Need in Complex Emergencies
June 28, 2016 ·
Background: Humanitarian assistance is designated to save lives and alleviate suffering among people affected by disasters. In 2014, close to 25 billion USD was allocated to humanitarian assistance, more than 80% of it from governmental donors and EU institutions. Most of these funds are devoted to Complex Emergencies (CE). It is widely accepted that the needs of the affected population should be the main determinant for resource allocations of humanitarian funding. However, to date no common, systematic, and transparent system for needs-based allocations exists. In an earlier paper, an easy-to-use model, “the 7eed model”, based on readily available indicators that distinguished between levels of severity among disaster-affected countries was presented. The aim of this paper is to assess the usefulness of the 7eed model in regards to 1) data availability, 2) variations between CE effected countries and sensitivity to change over time, and 3) reliability in capturing severity and levels of need.
Method: We applied the 7eed model to 25 countries with CE using data from 2013 to 2015. Data availability and indicator value variations were assessed using heat maps. To calculate a severity score and a needs score, we applied a standardised mathematical formula, based on the UTSTEIN template. We assessed the model for reliability on previous CEs with a “known” outcome in terms of excess mortality.
Results: Most of the required data was available for nearly all countries and indicators, and availability increased over time. The 7eed model was able to discriminate between levels of severity and needs among countries. Comparison with historical complex disasters showed a correlation between excess mortality and severity score.
Conclusion: Our study indicates that the proposed 7eed model can serve as a useful tool for setting funding levels for humanitarian assistance according to measurable levels of need. The 7eed model provides national level information but does not take into account local variations or specific contextual factors.

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Research Article
Socio-demographic Predictors for Urban Community Disaster Health Risk Perception and Household Based Preparedness in a Chinese Urban City
June 27, 2016 ·
Objectives: There is limited evidence on urban Asian communities’ disaster risk perceptions and household level preparedness. Hong Kong is characterized by high population density, and is susceptible to large-scale natural disasters and health crises such as typhoons, fires and infectious disease outbreaks. This research paper investigates the rates and predictors of urban community disaster risk perception, awareness and preparedness, at individual and household levels.
Methods: A randomized cross-sectional, population-based telephone survey study was conducted among the Cantonese-speaking population aged over 15 years in Hong Kong. Descriptive statistics were reported. A stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the independent associations between risk perceptions, socioeconomic factors, household characteristics, and personal background.
Findings: Final study sample comprised of 1002 respondents with a 63% response rate. The majority of respondents (82.3%) did not perceive Hong Kong as a disaster-susceptible city. Half (54.6%) reported beliefs that the local population had lower disaster awareness than other global cities. Infectious disease outbreak (72.4%), typhoon (12.6%), and fire (7.1%) were ranked as the most-likely-to-occur population-based disasters. Although over 77% believed that basic first aid training was necessary for improving individual disaster preparedness, only a quarter (26.1%) of respondents reported participation in training.
Conclusion: Despite Hong Kong’s high level of risk, general public perceptions of disaster in Hong Kong were low, and little preparedness has occurred at the individual or household levels. This report has potential to inform the development of related policies and risk communication strategies in Asian urban cities.

PLoS Medicine
http://www.plosmedicine.org/
(Accessed 2 July 2016)
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Editorial
A Global Champion for Health—WHO’s Next?
The PLOS Medicine Editors
| published 28 Jun 2016 | PLOS Medicine
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002059
[Excerpt]
… WHO’s next Director-General should be a proven leader and advocate, perhaps from a low-income or middle-income country. The new recruit will be greeted by a full in-tray, and featuring prominently are likely to be the constraints imposed by WHO’s current funding mechanisms. A substantial proportion of WHO’s existing budget is earmarked for specific projects, leaving the organization with little financial flexibility to respond to unanticipated demands. However, any improved funding mechanism is likely to follow, and be dependent on, organizational reform. According to Kruk, “WHO is both essential and hamstrung…the election of the Director-General should be a moment for member countries and other funders to reflect on whether they want an implementation agency for their favored health agenda, or an independent institution with the intelligence, agility, and operational capacity to tackle the coming global health challenges.”

Above all, the incoming leader of WHO will need to be open-minded and creative. More than one of the experts we contacted emphasized the fluid nature of the threats to human health to which WHO should shape the world’s response. WHO must be able to lead responses in some areas of global health, but, in other areas, working together with more nimble and focused organizations will be pragmatic. Large-scale infectious disease outbreaks are continuing, and noncommunicable diseases, including cancer, dementia, and mental illnesses, are growing in prevalence and increasing demand for treatment and care. The resources and ingenuity of researchers and clinicians will need to be harnessed, and interventions adapted to new settings, with much greater dynamism. The secular issues of population ageing, conflict, climate change, migration, and others will produce health problems that only an organization with a global reach, responsible to all, can hope to meet. We look forward to welcoming a new leader for WHO with the energy and vision to remold the organization to meet the health needs of the world’s people and societies for the 21st century.

PLoS Medicine
http://www.plosmedicine.org/
(Accessed 2 July 2016)
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Guidelines and Guidance |
Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER statement
Gretchen A. Stevens, Leontine Alkema, Robert E. Black, J. Ties Boerma, Gary S. Collins, Majid Ezzati, John T. Grove, Daniel R. Hogan, Margaret C. Hogan, Richard Horton, Joy E. Lawn, Ana Marušić, Colin D. Mathers, Christopher J. L. Murray, Igor Rudan, Joshua A. Salomon, Paul J. Simpson, Theo Vos, Vivian Welch, The GATHER Working Group
published 28 Jun 2016 | PLOS Medicine
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002056

Measurements of health indicators are rarely available for every population and period of interest, and available data may not be comparable. The Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) define best reporting practices for studies that calculate health estimates for multiple populations (in time or space) using multiple information sources. Health estimates that fall within the scope of GATHER include all quantitative population-level estimates (including global, regional, national, or subnational estimates) of health indicators, including indicators of health status, incidence and prevalence of diseases, injuries, and disability and functioning; and indicators of health determinants, including health behaviours and health exposures. GATHER comprises a checklist of 18 items that are essential for best reporting practice. A more detailed explanation and elaboration document, describing the interpretation and rationale of each reporting item along with examples of good reporting, is available on the GATHER website (gather-statement.org).

PLoS Medicine
http://www.plosmedicine.org/
(Accessed 2 July 2016)
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Agreements between Industry and Academia on Publication Rights: A Retrospective Study of Protocols and Publications of Randomized Clinical Trials
Benjamin Kasenda, Erik von Elm, John J. You, Anette Blümle, Yuki Tomonaga, Ramon Saccilotto, Alain Amstutz, Theresa Bengough, Joerg J. Meerpohl, Mihaela Stegert, Kelechi K. Olu, Kari A. O. Tikkinen, Ignacio Neumann, Alonso Carrasco-Labra, Markus Faulhaber, Sohail M. Mulla, Dominik Mertz, Elie A. Akl, Dirk Bassler, Jason W. Busse, Ignacio Ferreira-González, Francois Lamontagne, Alain Nordmann, Viktoria Gloy, Heike Raatz, Lorenzo Moja, Shanil Ebrahim, Stefan Schandelmaier, Xin Sun, Per O. Vandvik, Bradley C. Johnston, Martin A. Walter, Bernard Burnand, Matthias Schwenkglenks, Lars G. Hemkens, Heiner C. Bucher, Gordon H. Guyatt, Matthias Briel
| published 28 Jun 2016 | PLOS Medicine
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002046
Abstract
Background
Little is known about publication agreements between industry and academic investigators in trial protocols and the consistency of these agreements with corresponding statements in publications. We aimed to investigate (i) the existence and types of publication agreements in trial protocols, (ii) the completeness and consistency of the reporting of these agreements in subsequent publications, and (iii) the frequency of co-authorship by industry employees.
Methods and Findings
We used a retrospective cohort of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) based on archived protocols approved by six research ethics committees between 13 January 2000 and 25 November 2003. Only RCTs with industry involvement were eligible. We investigated the documentation of publication agreements in RCT protocols and statements in corresponding journal publications. Of 647 eligible RCT protocols, 456 (70.5%) mentioned an agreement regarding publication of results. Of these 456, 393 (86.2%) documented an industry partner’s right to disapprove or at least review proposed manuscripts; 39 (8.6%) agreements were without constraints of publication. The remaining 24 (5.3%) protocols referred to separate agreement documents not accessible to us. Of those 432 protocols with an accessible publication agreement, 268 (62.0%) trials were published. Most agreements documented in the protocol were not reported in the subsequent publication (197/268 [73.5%]). Of 71 agreements reported in publications, 52 (73.2%) were concordant with those documented in the protocol. In 14 of 37 (37.8%) publications in which statements suggested unrestricted publication rights, at least one co-author was an industry employee. In 25 protocol-publication pairs, author statements in publications suggested no constraints, but 18 corresponding protocols documented restricting agreements.
Conclusions
Publication agreements constraining academic authors’ independence are common. Journal articles seldom report on publication agreements, and, if they do, statements can be discrepant with the trial protocol.

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
http://www.plosntds.org/
[Accessed 2 July 2016]

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Editorial
Southern Europe’s Coming Plagues: Vector-Borne Neglected Tropical Diseases
Peter J. Hotez
| published 30 Jun 2016 | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004243
[Excerpts]
The factors responsible for promoting the vector-borne NTDs in Southern Europe are under investigation, but there are some key lead possibilities to consider:.
Poverty.
Throughout the world’s low- and middle-income countries, poverty is a major social determinant promoting the ongoing transmission of NTDs. Previous findings have determined that comparable levels of extreme poverty can also be found among the G20 countries and are also contributing to widespread NTDs [32,33]. It is interesting to note how the emergence or re-emergence of Southern Europe’s major NTDs roughly coincides with the European debt crisis that began in 2009 when countries such as Greece, Portugal, and Spain experienced difficulties in repaying their government debts without outside assistance. Ultimately, Greece defaulted on its debt to the International Monetary Fund in 2015, thereby precipitating a financial crisis linked to high unemployment. There is an important need to better understand the link between poverty and NTDs. So far, it has been found that NTDs flourish in impoverished settings, but also that NTDs exhibit a unique ability to reinforce poverty through their debilitating effects on workers, women, and growing and developing children.

Mass human migrations.
Still another key social factor may be the humanitarian crisis linked to hundreds of thousands of people fleeing conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Iraq due to the occupation of ISIS [34]. In so doing, they could be introducing or re-introducing NTDs endemic to the Middle East and North Africa, including the vector-borne NTDs highlighted above. For example, cutaneous leishmaniasis in Syria, where it is often known as “Aleppo Evil,” has reached hyperendemic proportions due to breakdowns in health systems and lack of access to essential medicine, with at least tens of thousands of new cases annually [35]. Quite possibly both cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly vectors are being routinely re-introduced into Southern Europe.

Climate change.
Finally, it has been noted that outside of the Arctic region, Europe’s single largest temperature increases associated with serious heat waves are now occurring in Southern Europe [36]. The factors promoting climate change include increased greenhouse gas emissions as a result of agriculture; burning of coal, oil, and gas (fossil fuels); landfills; and industrial pollutants [36]. Increased temperatures are helping to facilitate the survival and longevity of insects and snails with the capacity to transmit NTDs. Climate change may also promote the spread of some of Southern Europe’s vector-borne NTDs to Northern Europe, including WNV and leishmaniasis [19,37]…

PLoS One
http://www.plosone.org/
[Accessed 2 July 2016]

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Research Article
Monitoring and Evaluating Psychosocial Intervention Outcomes in Humanitarian Aid
Kaz de Jong, Cono Ariti, Saskia van der Kam, Trudy Mooren, Leslie Shanks, Giovanni Pintaldi, Rolf Kleber
Research Article | published 17 Jun 2016 | PLOS ONE
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0157474
Abstract
Existing tools for evaluating psychosocial interventions (un-validated self-reporting questionnaires) are not ideal for use in non-Western conflict settings. We implement a generic method of treatment evaluation, using client and counsellor feedback, in 18 projects in non-Western humanitarian settings. We discuss our findings from the perspective of validity and suggestions for future research. A retrospective analysis is executed using data gathered from psychosocial projects. Clients (n = 7,058) complete two (complaints and functioning) rating scales each session and counsellors rate the client’s status at exit. The client-completed pre- and post-intervention rating scales show substantial changes. Counsellor evaluation of the clients’ status shows a similar trend in improvement. All three multivariable models for each separate scale have similar associations between the scales and the investigated variables despite different cultural settings. The validity is good. Limitations are: ratings give only a general impression and clinical risk factors are not measured. Potential ceiling effects may influence change of scales. The intra and inter-rater reliability of the counsellors’ rating is not assessed. The focus on client and counsellor perspectives to evaluate treatment outcome seems a strong alternative for evaluation instruments frequently used in psychosocial programming. The session client rated scales helps client and counsellor to set mutual treatment objectives and reduce drop-out risk. Further research should test the scales against a cross-cultural valid gold standard to obtain insight into their clinical relevance.

Science
01 July 2016 Vol 353, Issue 6294
http://www.sciencemag.org/current.dtl

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Feature
South Africa’s bid to end AIDS
By Jon Cohen
Science01 Jul 2016 : 18-21
The tools exist, but the country’s epidemic—the largest in the world—won’t yield easily.
Summary
South Africa has more people living with HIV, an estimated 6.6 million, than any country in the world. About half are now receiving antiretroviral (ARV) treatment, which has greatly stressed the country’s health care system. Now, South Africa plans to encourage all infected people to learn their status and start treatment as part of the drive to end its epidemic. The cornerstone of the campaign is the fact that HIV-infected people who take ARVs and fully suppress their virus rarely transmit to others. Mathematical models suggest that 73% of the infected population has to achieve this to slow spread and start the epidemic’s downward spiral. South Africa has pledged to hit this target by 2020, in keeping with a global goal set by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, but many experts doubt it can succeed by then—and others question the model itself. When the biannual International AIDS Conference takes place in Durban, South Africa, later this month, these issues likely will be in center stage.

Social Science & Medicine
Volume 158, Pages 1-172 (June 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/02779536/156

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Regular articles
Long-term health implications of school quality
Original Research Article
Pages 1-7
Rebecca N. Dudovitz, Bergen B. Nelson, Tumaini R. Coker, Christopher Biely, Ning Li, Lynne C. Wu, Paul J. Chung
Abstract
Objective
Individual academic achievement is a well-known predictor of adult health, and addressing education inequities may be critical to reducing health disparities. Disparities in school quality are well documented. However, we lack nationally representative studies evaluating the impact of school quality on adult health. We aim to determine whether high school quality predicts adult health outcomes after controlling for baseline health, socio-demographics and individual academic achievement.
Methods
We analyzed data from 7037 adolescents who attended one of 77 high schools in the Unites States and were followed into adulthood from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. Selected school-level quality measures—average daily attendance, school promotion rate, parental involvement, and teacher experience—were validated based on ability to predict high school graduation and college attendance. Individual adult health outcomes included self-rated health, diagnosis of depression, and having a measured BMI in the obese range.
Results
Logistic regressions controlling for socio-demographics, baseline health, health insurance, and individual academic performance demonstrated that school quality significantly predicted all health outcomes. As hypothesized, attending a school with lower average daily attendance predicted lower self-rated health (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 1.59, p = 0.003) and higher odds of depression diagnosis (AOR 1.35, p = 0.03); and attending a school with higher parent involvement predicted lower odds of obesity (AOR 0.69, p = 0.001). However, attending a school with higher promotion rate also predicted lower self-rated health (AOR1.20, p < 0.001).
Conclusions
High school quality may be an important, but complex, social determinant of health. These findings highlight the potential inter-dependence of education and health policy.