Health Policy and Planning
Volume 31 Issue 5 June 2016
http://heapol.oxfordjournals.org/content/current
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Original Articles
The composition of demand for newly launched vaccines: results from the pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccine introductions in Ethiopia and Malawi
B Adam Williams, Teklay Kidane, Geoffrey Chirwa, Neghist Tesfaye, Marta R Prescott, Soleine T Scotney, Moussa Valle, Sintayehu Abebe, Adija Tambuli, Bridget Malewezi, Tahir Mohammed, Emily Kobayashi, Emily Wootton, Renee Wong, Rahima Dosani, Hamsa Subramaniam, Jessica Joseph, Elif Yavuz, Aliza Apple, Yann Le Tallec, and Alice Kang’ethe
Health Policy Plan. (2016) 31 (5): 563-572 doi:10.1093/heapol/czv103
Abstract
Understanding post-launch demand for new vaccines can help countries maximize the benefits of immunization programmes. In particular, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) should ensure adequate resource planning with regards to stock consumption and service delivery for new vaccines, whereas global suppliers must produce enough vaccines to meet demand. If a country underestimates the number of children seeking vaccination, a stock-out of commodities will create missed opportunities for saving lives. We describe the post-launch demand for the first dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV1) in Ethiopia and Malawi and the first dose of rotavirus vaccine (Rota1) in Malawi, with focus on the new birth cohort and the ‘backlog cohort’, comprised of older children who are still eligible for vaccination at the time of launch. PCV1 and Rota1 uptake were compared with the demand for the first dose of pentavalent vaccine (Penta1), a routine immunization that targets the same age group and immunization schedule. In the first year, the total demand for PCV1 was 37% greater than that of Penta1 in Ethiopia and 59% greater in Malawi. In the first 6 months, the demand of Rota1 was only 5.9% greater than Penta1 demand in Malawi. Over the first three post-introduction months, 70.7% of PCV1 demand in Ethiopia and 71.5% of demand in Malawi came from children in the backlog cohort, whereas only 28.0% of Rota1 demand in Malawi was from the backlog cohort. The composition of demand was impacted by time elapsed since vaccine introduction and age restrictions. Evidence suggests that countries’ plans should account for the impact of backlog demand, especially in the first 3 months post-introduction. LMICs should request for higher stock volumes when compared with routine needs, plan social mobilization activities to reach the backlog cohort and allocate human resources and cold chain capacity to accommodate high demand following vaccine introduction.
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Resource needs and gap analysis in achieving universal access to HIV/AIDS services: a data envelopment analysis of 45 countries
Wu Zeng, Donald S Shepard, Carlos Avila-Figueroa, and Haksoon Ahn
Abstract
Background—To manage the human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, international donors have pledged unprecedented commitments for needed services. The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) projected that low- and middle-income countries needed $25 billion to meet the 2010 HIV/AIDS goal of universal access to AIDS prevention and care, using the resource needs model (RNM).
Methods—Drawing from the results from its sister study, which used a data envelopment analysis (DEA) and a Tobit model to evaluate and adjust the technical efficiency of 61 countries in delivering HIV/AIDS services from 2002 to 2007, this study extended the DEA and developed an approach to estimate resource needs and decompose the performance gap into efficiency gap and resource gap. In the DEA, we considered national HIV/AIDS spending as the input and volume of voluntary counseling and testing (VCT), prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) as the outputs. An input-oriented DEA model was constructed to project resource needs in achieving 2010 HIV/AIDS goal for 45 countries using the data in 2006, assuming that all study countries maximized efficiency.
Findings—The DEA approach demonstrated the potential to include efficiency of national HIV/AIDS programmes in resource needs estimation, using macro-level data. Under maximal efficiency, the annual projected resource needs for the 45 countries was $6.3 billion, ∼47% of their UNAIDS estimate of $13.5 billion. Given study countries’ spending of $3.9 billion, improving efficiency could narrow the gap from $9.6 to $2.4 billion. The results suggest that along with continued financial commitment to HIV/AIDS, improving the efficiency of HIV/AIDS programmes would accelerate the pace to reach 2010 HIV/AIDS goals. The DEA approach provides a supplement to the AIDS RNM to inform policy making.