Science
15 April 2016 Vol 352, Issue 6283
http://www.sciencemag.org/current.dtl
.
Policy Forum
Opportunities for advances in climate change economics
By M. Burke, M. Craxton, C. D. Kolstad, C. Onda, H. Allcott, E. Baker, L. Barrage, R. Carson, K. Gillingham, J. Graff-Zivin, M. Greenstone, S. Hallegatte, W. M. Hanemann, G. Heal, S. Hsiang, B. Jones, D. L. Kelly, R. Kopp, M. Kotchen, R. Mendelsohn, K. Meng, G. Metcalf, J. Moreno-Cruz, R. Pindyck, S. Rose, I. Rudik, J. Stock, R. S. J. Tol
Science15 Apr 2016 : 292-293
Target carbon’s costs, policy designs, and developing countries
Summary
There have been dramatic advances in understanding the physical science of climate change, facilitated by substantial and reliable research support. The social value of these advances depends on understanding their implications for society, an arena where research support has been more modest and research progress slower. Some advances have been made in understanding and formalizing climate-economy linkages, but knowledge gaps remain [e.g., as discussed in (1, 2)]. We outline three areas where we believe research progress on climate economics is both sorely needed, in light of policy relevance, and possible within the next few years given appropriate funding: (i) refining the social cost of carbon (SCC), (ii) improving understanding of the consequences of particular policies, and (iii) better understanding of the economic impacts and policy choices in developing economies.
.
Reports
Zika virus in the Americas: Early epidemiological and genetic findings
By Nuno Rodrigues Faria, Raimunda do Socorro da Silva Azevedo, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Renato Souza, Mariana Sequetin Cunha, Sarah C. Hill, Julien Thézé, Michael B. Bonsall, Thomas A. Bowden, Ilona Rissanen, Iray Maria Rocco, Juliana Silva Nogueira, Adriana Yurika Maeda, Fernanda Giseli da Silva Vasami, Fernando Luiz de Lima Macedo, Akemi Suzuki, Sueli Guerreiro Rodrigues, Ana Cecilia Ribeiro Cruz, Bruno Tardeli Nunes, Daniele Barbosa de Almeida Medeiros, Daniela Sueli Guerreiro Rodrigues, Alice Louize Nunes Queiroz, Eliana Vieira Pinto da Silva, Daniele Freitas Henriques, Elisabeth Salbe Travassos da Rosa, Consuelo Silva de Oliveira, Livia Caricio Martins, Helena Baldez Vasconcelos, Livia Medeiros Neves Casseb, Darlene de Brito Simith, Jane P. Messina, Leandro Abade, José Lourenço, Luiz Carlos Junior Alcantara, Maricélia Maia de Lima, Marta Giovanetti, Simon I. Hay, Rodrigo Santos de Oliveira, Poliana da Silva Lemos, Layanna Freitas de Oliveira, Clayton Pereira Silva de Lima, Sandro Patroca da Silva, Janaina Mota de Vasconcelos, Luciano Franco, Jedson Ferreira Cardoso, João Lídio da Silva Gonçalves Vianez-Júnior, Daiana Mir, Gonzalo Bello, Edson Delatorre, Kamran Khan, Marisa Creatore, Giovanini Evelim Coelho, Wanderson Kleber de Oliveira, Robert Tesh, Oliver G. Pybus, Marcio R. T. Nunes, Pedro F. C. Vasconcelos
Science15 Apr 2016 : 345-349
Zika virus genomes from Brazil
The Zika virus outbreak is a major cause for concern in Brazil, where it has been linked with increased reports of otherwise rare birth defects and neuropathology. In a phylogenetic analysis, Faria et al. infer a single introduction of Zika to the Americas and estimated the introduction date to be about May to December 2013—some 12 months earlier than the virus was reported. This timing correlates with major events in the Brazilian cultural calendar associated with increased traveler numbers from areas where Zika virus has been circulating. A correlation was also observed between incidences of microcephaly and week 17 of pregnancy.
Abstract
Brazil has experienced an unprecedented epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), with ~30,000 cases reported to date. ZIKV was first detected in Brazil in May 2015, and cases of microcephaly potentially associated with ZIKV infection were identified in November 2015. We performed next-generation sequencing to generate seven Brazilian ZIKV genomes sampled from four self-limited cases, one blood donor, one fatal adult case, and one newborn with microcephaly and congenital malformations. Results of phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses show a single introduction of ZIKV into the Americas, which we estimated to have occurred between May and December 2013, more than 12 months before the detection of ZIKV in Brazil. The estimated date of origin coincides with an increase in air passengers to Brazil from ZIKV-endemic areas, as well as with reported outbreaks in the Pacific Islands. ZIKV genomes from Brazil are phylogenetically interspersed with those from other South American and Caribbean countries. Mapping mutations onto existing structural models revealed the context of viral amino acid changes present in the outbreak lineage; however, no shared amino acid changes were found among the three currently available virus genomes from microcephaly cases. Municipality-level incidence data indicate that reports of suspected microcephaly in Brazil best correlate with ZIKV incidence around week 17 of pregnancy, although this correlation does not demonstrate causation. Our genetic description and analysis of ZIKV isolates in Brazil provide a baseline for future studies of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of this emerging virus in the Americas.
GE2P2 Global :: Knowledge Sharing; Ideas; Operations 