Complexity
November/December 2014 Volume 20, Issue 2 Pages fmi–fmi, 1–81
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cplx.v20.2/issuetoc

The Simply complex
Exponential growth in Ebola outbreak since May 14, 2014
Allen G. Hunt*
Article first published online: 18 OCT 2014
DOI: 10.1002/cplx.21615
Excerpt
Contrary to general opinion, the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa followed an exponential growth curve starting already in mid-May. The death toll followed an exponential growth curve with almost the same time constant, allowing direct calculation of the mortality of the outbreak. This value remained steady at about 72%, contrary to the estimate of the World Health Organization of slightly above 50%. Until the last 2 weeks, the projected date at which the number of infected individuals would reach 100,000 had remained steady at January 19. Updated statistics from September 6 advanced that date by at least a month. Estimates suggest that over 20,000 already have been infected, exceeding the number that the WHO has declared could be the eventual outcome…