Complexity
March/April 2014 Volume 19, Issue 4 Pages fmi–fmii, 1–65
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cplx.v19.4/issuetoc
Research Article
Seeing it coming: A complexity approach to disasters and humanitarian crises
Claudio Cioffi-Revilla*
Article first published online: 8 APR 2014
DOI: 10.1002/cplx.21522
Abstract
Humanitarian crises and related complex emergencies caused by natural hazards or conflicts are marked by uncertainty. Disasters are extreme events mitigated through preparedness, response, and recovery. This article uses social complexity theory as a novel framework for deriving actionable insights on the onset T and severity S of disasters. Disaster distributions often show heavy tails, symptomatic of non-equilibrium dynamics, sometimes approximating a power law with critical or near-critical exponent value of 2, not “normal” (bell-shaped) or Gaussian equilibrium features. This theory-based method is applicable to existing datasets. Policy implications include the usefulness of real-time and anticipatory analytical strategies to support preparedness.