Humanitarian Aid and the Duration and Outcome of Civil Wars Based on Rebel Group Motivation
Ratto, Andrew D. (2013)
Master’s Thesis (101 pages)
Committee Chair / Thesis Adviser: Reiter, Dan
Emory University :: Laney Graduate School, Political Science
Permanent url: http://pid.emory.edu/ark:/25593/f8f51
Abstract
Rebel groups can be differentiated based on whether their primary motivation is a desire for economic opportunism and personal greed or whether they are motivated by a desire for political change or policy reform. Based on this distinction, these rebel groups will interact with humanitarian aid in different ways. In theory, the presence of humanitarian aid will be damaging to rebel groups that are primarily motivated by grievances while the presence of humanitarian aid will be beneficial to rebel groups that are primarily motivated by greed. An instrumental variable probit with cubic time splines and a competing risks model are used to evaluate the impact of humanitarian aid on civil war duration and outcomes based on rebel group motivations. There is empirical evidence to support the hypotheses that the presence of humanitarian aid is associated with longer conflicts and that an increase in the amount of humanitarian aid is associated with an increase in the expected amount of time until a rebel victory.