International Journal of Systems Science
Volume 45, Issue 6, 2014
http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/tsys20/current#.Uxx4S4Ut6F8
Published online: 28 Feb 2014

Determining the optimal decision time of relief allocation in response to disaster via relief demand updates
Sha-lei Zhanab & Nan Liua*
DOI: 10.1080/00207721.2014.891665
Abstract
Relief allocation has recently attracted increased interest in research. Most studies in the literature have not focused on the trade-off between demand forecast accuracy and relief allocation efficiency. Thus, we employ the Bayesian updating framework, which allows the decision-maker to postpone his decision until sufficient accurate demand information is available. Different from the previous studies, we propose a novel method of relief demand updating, and devise a lost function as a function of time delay. Then, we develop a relief allocation model as an optimal stopping problem, to determine the optimal delay in response to typhoon disaster. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a case of post-disaster rescue. The computational results indicate the potential advantages of the model.